Tuesday punditry.
Tom Jensen/PPP:
I think Democrats are going to lose the House, with Republicans quite possibly picking up a lot more seats than they even need for a majority. At the same time I think Democrats will hold onto the Senate and that it may be by a larger margin than people are expecting, with the party perhaps holding onto its seats in places like Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, and West Virginia where the party lucked out because the GOP nominated weak candidates.
That's a reminder that candidates matter- but they matter a lot more in Senate elections where voters really get to know them than in House elections that are much more likely to be determined by the national tide. We've seen time and again in Senate races this year that the better voters get to know the Republican candidates the less they like them. But unfortunately for Democrats I don't know that voters ever get to know the House candidates well enough for that same effect to occur.
NY Times on Carl Paladino (R-bigot):
Supporters of gay rights lashed out at Mr. Paladino’s comments, saying they make him unsuitable to be New York’s governor.
"Out of touch, out of his mind, should be out of the race," said Brian Ellner, a senior strategist for the Human Rights Campaign for New York Marriage.
NY Times editorial:
Carl Paladino’s bigoted remarks about gay people were bad enough by themselves — another dip in his low-road campaign for governor of New York. But when you consider his timing, they were shockingly irresponsible.
Rude, crude and bigoted.
NY Daily News:
Tea Party hero Carl Paladino rages against 'disgusting' gay pride parades
Mark Blumenthal on the likely voter:
WERTHEIMER: Well, let's talk a little bit more about that likely voter, because a likely voter is not exactly the same as a registered voter. It seems to be that people generally tell pollsters that they're going to vote because that's the right thing to say.
Mr. BLUMENTHAL: That's right.
WERTHEIMER: So what does the likely voter look like?
Mr. BLUMENTHAL: Well we know that the answer to, are you likely to vote? Do you typically vote? Are you interested in the election? Do you know things about where to vote? The answers to all of those things are predictive, imperfectly, of how often people vote. And pollsters tend to use those kinds of questions to nudge their sample in the right direction, though they never know exactly which respondents will absolutely, certainly vote and which won't.
The best they can do is say we know this is sort of a picture of the most likely electorate and this is a picture of a much wider than likely electorate, and we know that the truth is somewhere in between.
Gallup's LV screen remains brutal, if it's true.
Gallup's latest election update shows that if all registered voters were to turn out, 44% of voters would favor the Democratic candidate in their district and 47% would favor the Republican candidate. The race has been close since the beginning of September, suggesting there has been little structural change in Americans' broad voting intentions in recent weeks.
Among voters Gallup estimates to be most likely to vote at this point under either a higher- or lower-turnout scenario, Republicans maintain substantial double-digit advantages. In Gallup's higher-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 53% to 41%. In Gallup's lower-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 56% to 39%. These likely voter estimates are based on respondents' answers to seven turnout questions, with the results used to assign a "likelihood to vote" score to each registered voter and, in turn, to create hypothetical models of the electorate based on various turnout scenarios.
Eugene Robinson:
How the president looks on Election Day will depend in part on his ability to fire up the constituencies in the Democratic Party's base. With different groups, he's taking different approaches.
For progressives who have criticized his administration from the left, he has a stern lecture that might be paraphrased like this: "Come on, people, give us a break. Have you noticed that we don't exactly have a liberal majority in Congress? Yet, look at all we've managed to accomplish." For centrist Democrats who might have wanted him to spend more time on jobs and less on health care, Obama's message is essentially apocalyptic, although it's delivered in his customary no-drama way. Something like: "You're right, things aren't as great as we'd like. But just imagine the disaster if the Republicans take control of Capitol Hill."
With African Americans, his appeal has been simpler and more direct: "I need you." The response he gets from black voters may determine the outcome of some of November's key races.