National Research Inc. for Club Growth. 10/8-9. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (no trend lines).
Joe Miller (R) 33
Lisa Murkowski (R) 31
Scott McAdams (D) 27
That's a virtual dead heat, and it probably slightly overstates Murkowski's support. (Unlike our poll, this poll assumes anyone not voting for Miller or McAdams is voting for Murkowski. Most of them are -- but not all.)
The fact that McAdams is essentially tied with Murkowski and Miller is important for him because now that he's demonstrated that he is in as good a position as Murkowski to to win this race, Democrats and liberals don't have any strategic reason to support Murkowski merely to stop Miller. In other words, they won't be wasting their votes by voting for McAdams. And if McAdams does well with those voters, he very well could win this thing -- especially if you chip in $5 or $10 to help him win turn this seat blue.