Morning everyone. Tomorrow, there's expected snow in New Hampshire, beginning at 9 am and continuing throughout the day. In addition, it's damn cold here-- had to deal with frozen water pipes this AM. Amidst the cold, I shelved the campaign trail yesterday, and am going to read polls instead. Continuing with Iowa's precedent, I'll stick with the
subscription-based Zogby (because I don't have crosstabs of the others).
Zogby has released 1/23 to 1/25 results this morning, with a cumulative 31% to 28% lead by Kerry over Dean. Notable here is that Zogby (and there are other conflicting top-line results) shows Dean pulling within 1% of Kerry in the Sunday polling, with Zogby beginning to factor in Leaners to reflect how Undecideds might break (Sat, Fri & Thur):
Dean: 38% (25,22,23)
Kerry:39% (26,28,36)
What's happening? According to Zogby, a shift among the undecided began this previous Friday. On Sunday's 3-day polling, among the undecided, here were the leaning results (Friday's 3-day polling):
Kerry: 25% (32)
Dean: 18% (7)
Clark: 10% (8)
Edwards: 11% (11)
Lieberman: 6% (2)
That reflects an 18% Kerry-Dean swing, which accounts for the tightening that Zogby has shown in the contest. Why does Zogby differ from other polls? For one thing, Zogby is not predicting that independent voters will play a 50% turnout role that other polls project. Among Democrats only, Dean leads Kerry by a 33-31 percent margin. Among Independents, Kerry leads Dean by a 31-22 percent margin.
With the snow, a lower turnout does seem likely, with a possible situation of having the very strong supporters play a bigger role. Among the very strong supporters, Kerry and Dean are tied at 34.2 percent each. Clark is third at 14 percent, with Lieberman and Edwards both at 8 percent. Strong support would seem the indicator in a weather-inflicted scenario, but another factor is the age.
Among those over 65, Kerry polls 39 percent, Dean 25 percent, Clark 15 percent, Edwards 13 percent Lieberman 8 percent. Among those aged 18-29, Dean polls 38 percent, Clark and Edwards poll 13 percent, Kerry polls 11 percent, Lieberman polls 8 percent. Usually, there's a higher turnout among the older voters, but in a weather-inflicted scenario, that might not be the case. Tomorrow Zogby will release his final numbers, with a toss-up situation seeming likely.