Xposted at
European Tribune
In the aftermath of a
shock victory, the question on everyone's mind is this: What will
Ahmadinejad do?
For more than three days, the Iran election issue is the number one world story at (algorithm determined) Google News. Yet there was not even a peep in today's (Sunday) morning shows, and frankly, surprizingly little discussion here at Daily Kos as well.
Previous parts of this series: Part I, II, III, IV.
Also checkout the Tehran-based vsredthoughtsecondedition's diary.
The ever-excellent Grand Moff Texan's entries in his blog Moment of Triumph here.
In this diary:
- Elections: WTF happened?
- Ahmadinejad: "Robin Hood" or "Pol Pot"?
- The American Double-Standard and the dillema of the left
The Elections: WTF Happened?
On Friday June 23, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the new President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. He soundly defeated the favorite Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani after two rounds of elections.
As the Christian Science Monitor reports today, Ahmadinejad is a right-wing religious conservative, even more conservative than Iran's supreme leader.
No one predicted victory by the most hard-line candidate in the field, or the depth of economic discontent and class and social divisions that manifested themselves at the ballot box, in favor of the former Tehran mayor. Ahmadinejad was considered by many to be the last choice of Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of state, and has permitted a lengthy dialogue with Europe over nuclear issues, and the sending of some positive signals to the US.
The turnout numbers are interesting. They are all over the map. In the credible media (i.e. not opinion based) turnout percentage numbers between high 40's to low 60's are being floatede around. CNN seems to be especially confused.
This is what CNN wrote this morning time-stamped 7:27AM EST:
Nearly 28 million ballots were cast, or more than 59 percent of Iran's approximately 47 million eligible voters. In last week's election, the turnout was close to 63 percent.
And this is what CNN wrote this morning, time-stamped 9:20AM EST:
An estimated 23 million votes were cast, or nearly 49 percent of Iran's 47 million eligible voters. In last week's first round of the presidential election, the turnout was close to 63 percent, The Associated Press reported.
Not that the second article does not quote AP on the second round election numbers.
FYI: Iran's reformist-controlled Ministry of Interior reported 27.9M voters which given Iran's 47M eligibles, seems consistent with the 59% turnout number. It seems this must've been where AP got the number but where did CNN get the 49% number? Interesting...
Alligations of fraud are also confusing.
After the first round last week, Mehdi Karroubi who came in third, thus narrowly missing the run-off, lead the charge in alleging fraud.
The particulars of the fraud allegations (in the first round) seem to be the following:
- Karroubi's claim that "money changed hands" to get more hardliner votes.
- The fact that the Guardian Council stepped in and took over reporting of results, something the ministry of interior is responsible for.
- The fact that Ahmadinejad declared himself a candidate for the run-off before all the votes were counted.
- Members of the Revolutionary Guards and Iran's Bassij (militia) intimidated voters, and illegally campaigned for hardliner Ahmadinejad.
Ahmadinejad's campaign vehimently disputed the charges. He basically called Karroubi a "sore loser." Furthermore, he claimed that according to Iran's constitution, the Guardian Council has a right to ratify the elections.
In any case it seemed, Iran's current President Khatami stepped in and got the Guardian Council to back-off the reporting issue. In the second round, the results were reported by the Interior Ministry only.
For a variey of reasons nobody chose to legally contest the first round of the elections. According to International Herald Tribune, with very little time to prepare, the reformists chose to back Hashemi Rafsanjani and concentrate on the second round of the elections and take the moral high ground, perhaps using the fraud issue to appeal for more votes. Also, it seemed clearly in Hashemi's interest not to seriously contest the first round for fear that he may face a reformist. At that time, almost all indications showed a landslide Hashemi victory in a showdown with Ahmadinejad.
In last Friday's second round, there were still allegations of fraud. But of the four bullet points above only the last one was alleged in this round. The reformist ministry of interior accounts indicate that almost certainly some fraud did take place:
Mohsen Vaheb, chairman of Mr Rafsanjani's campaign in Tehran province, accused the basij, a militant volunteer force, and the revolutionary guards of trying to skew the results in Mr Ahmadinejad's favour.
"We know they are ballot rigging," he told the Guardian.
"We are receiving reports that the basij and revolutionary guards are involved in ballot rigging and cheating. There's a probability that ballot boxes in at least two mosques in Tehran will be annulled.
"They have also been making propaganda for Ahmadinejad and that's forbidden. The law states that in the last 24 hours before polls open, you are not allowed to issue publicity for candidates."
The accusations were backed up by the interior ministry, which is nominally in charge of the election and which described the breaches as "beyond the minor stage".
In the face of Friday's decisive defeat, Hashemi chose not to pursue the fraud allegations in this round either.
Ahmadinejad, 48, won with 61.7 percent of votes, the Interior Ministry said yesterday. Rafsanjani, 70, attacked ``those who ruthlessly destroyed my image and that of my relatives through spending tens of billions of the people's money,'' state news agency IRNA reported, citing a statement by Rafsanjani.
``I do not intend to take my complaint to the jurors who have shown they either do not want or cannot do anything,'' the statement said. ``I will only complain before the divine court of justice,'' meaning to God.
When all is said and done, the fraud allegations (which are almost certainly true) alone fail to explain the Ahmadinejad victory, especially since the allegatiosn seem to have at least partially watered down to "aggressive campaigning techniques" a far-cry from outright bribery. The reformists had almost certainly miscalculated the situation. They vociforously noted all instances of fraud and abuse thinking the election results would be close enough for these instances to make a difference. But they, along with just about everyone else, did not anticipate Ahmadinejad's victory, especially a victory with such a wide margin.
If these elections were "stolen," Ahmadinajed stole them fair and square. Hedging his bets on Iran's contrarian voting patterns, Ahmadinejad easily distinguished himself from the other 6 candidates. Just about every other contender adopted a modern, western-style campaign complete with colorful literature, dancing music and even sex or at least what passes for sex in the Islamic Republic. This included even the hardliner Ghalibaf who actually threw in his support for Hashemi in the second round.
Ahmadinejad: "Robin Hood" or "Pol Pot"?
Meanwhile Ahmadinejad presented himself as a commoner suffering along with the urban poor and the religious devout. Both groups had been essentially ignored by Khatami and the entire "reform" movement. Ahamdinejad's electoral maneuvers were not unlike those of Karl Rove in selling Geroge W. Bush in 2004. Except, unlike Bush, Ahmadinejad so far, has not been a hyporcrite. He took part in the planning of the hostage crisis, even suggesting that they take over the US and the USSR embassy simultaniously. The overtaking of the US embassy was regarded as necessary to prevent a '53-style foreign coup in Iran. He served in the Iran-Iraq war, which -fairly or not- was seen as a proxy war against the United States and other Saddam benefactors. And then there's his widely reported personal modesty which he used to maximum advantage in the elections:
But there is no doubt Ahmadinejad's campaign team played a highly astute game, striking a chord with voters sick of corruption and unshared oil riches by presenting him as an honest local official who only draws a teacher's salary.
Ahmadinejad lost no chance to show he was one of the people, dressing in a supremely drab suit, emphasising his modest income and even complaining his children used the Internet so much he could not pay the phone bill. Ahmadinejad, who will become Iran's president in August, is hailed by the devout poor as a Robin Hood figure who will give them a slice of the Islamic Republic's abundant oil wealth.
The Robin Hood message was driven home when Ahmadinejad openly attacked Iran's crippling corruption. The attacks were very successfull and essentially killed two birds with one stone. He struck a serious chord with the Iranian poor and at the same time attacked Rafsanjani. Considered the richest person in Iran, Hashemi Rafsanjani and his family are rumored to control important sectors of Iranian economy mafia style.
This particular Robin Hood, however, has serious fascistic tendencies. Surely the case against him has been somewhat exaggerated by his political rivals as one would expect in any such contest. Similarly many attempts to taint him are from Iranian exiles and US Neocons with a "regime change" agenda. To this, we can also add the exaggerations of the Israeli government:
Foreign Minister Shalom commented on the Iranian elections, maintaining that the election of Ahmadinejad proves that Iran is not interested in reform, conciliation and progress; rather, it is interested in conservatism and extremism. Ahmadinejad has already announced that he plans to adopt the principles of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
The new regime - which is more extreme that its predecessor - will increase efforts to develop its nuclear program, with one purpose in mind: To obtain nuclear weapons alongside the launching ability it already has.
The foreign minister said that it is more probable now than ever before that the Iranian government will arm the terrorist organizations with nuclear weapons and will thereby distribute the nuclear threat all over the world. The connection between terrorism and nuclear weapons is a global existential threat. The international community must form a unified and decisive policy towards Iran, which will assure that the enlightened western nations will not become hostages of an extremist Iran. The time has come for the UN Security Council to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat.
Connecting their normal charges of nuke-terrorism -which they maintained under the reformist Khatami- to "this election proves" that Iran wants to nuke us, must be a new low, even for the Likudists.
Regardless there are also some credible reports painting a dark picture of the new President's past.
The most damaging are the allegations that he was personally involved in executions of dissidents inside the country, and extra-territorial assassinations in the 80s. I would really appreciat e it if someone could find some more concrete evidence in this regard.
NOTE: In doing this research, I learned very quickly NOT to trust unsubstantiated blabbing by neocons like Michael Ladeen or Donald Rumsfeld. Equally untrustable are opinions by the many anti-Government opposition groups responsible for much of the English language descriptions of Iran on the web. IMHO, both Neocons and some powerful Iranian exile groups in the west (and not most Iranians) have an active interest in doing and saying anything that makes Iran look like Saddam's Iraq or Nazi Germany, in order to justify US-backed "regime change." That being said, I have no problem believing some of these allegations provided they have independent support. (more on this later.)
I came accross this in GlobalSecurity.org which I'll consider credible until someone shows me otherwise.
Ahmadinejad was a senior officer in the Special Brigade of the Revolutionary Guards, stationed at Ramazan Garrison near Kermanshah in western Iran. This was the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards' "Extra-territorial Operations" -- mounting attacks beyond Iran's borders. His work in the Revolutionary Guards was related to suppression of dissidents in Iran and abroad. He personally participated in covert operations around the Iraqi city of Kirkuk.
With the formation of the elite Qods (Jerusalem) Force of the IRGC, Ahmadinejad became one of its senior commanders. He directed assassinations in the Middle East and Europe, including the assassination of Iranian Kurdish leader Abdorrahman Qassemlou, who was shot dead by senior officers of the Revolutionary Guards in a Vienna flat in July 1989. Ahmadinejad was a key planner of the attack. He was reported to have been involved in planning an attempt on the life of Salman Rushdie.
Other marks came from Ahmadinejad's actions as Tehran's mayor and his speeches during the elections.
from the
BBC:
The mayor shut down fast-food restaurants and
required male city employees to have beards and long sleeves.
And he took down an advertising campaign showing UK footballer David Beckham - the first Western celebrity used to promote a product in the country since Iran's 1979 revolution.
The
Boston Globe:
The president-elect once said: ''We did not have a revolution in order to have democracy."
Today's
New York Times:
In 2001, for example, when German officials formally complained about the arrest and conviction of reformers who had taken part in a conference in Berlin and Chancellor Gerhard Schröder then postponed a trip to Tehran, Mr. Ahmadinejad was quoted in the Iranian daily Resalat as saying, "Germany's mentality is exactly the same as during the Hitler era."At the time he was a leading member of the Islamic Association of Engineers, a conservative group.
Financial Express:
Meanwhile Islam has been promoted tirelessly -- in line with the wishes of hardliners close to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- with a new mosque popping up in symbolic proximity to a major theatre and Shiite religious festivals taking on a new scale.
Women, whom Ahmadinejad describes as "responsible and precise", have expressed fears of a crackdown on their rights.
So, "Robin Hood"? Not really. "Pol Pot"? Certainly not literally. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a religious nationalist with a checkered past and a right-wing populist strongman with a xenophobic streak. He has vowed to help the impoverished, fight corruption and to strenghten state economy. So what are we left with? A godly Vladimir Putin?
Perhaps that's why Putin was one of the first foreign leaders to congratulate him.