The AFL-CIO released a memo (PDF) yesterday on its field efforts, and if the claims hold true on Election Day, they may herald a dramatic shift in myriad close races around the country.
The Math – Our Grassroots Program is Moving the Numbers
* In July, when our grassroots program began, the generic battleground congressional ballot among union members was D+8;
* By October 10, our grassroots program moved that number up significantly, to D+25;
* Since these numbers are only as of October 10 we still have nearly a full month of grassroots campaigning to continue to move the numbers.
Senate Math
* Since Labor Day, we have doubled the margin of support for our Senate
candidates among union members.
* For example, in Pennsylvania on Labor Day, Sestak had a slim 45% to 39% lead among union members. Since then, Sestak’s lead has ballooned to 29 points (55% to 26%), a major reason Sestak trails Toomey by a single point in the most recent polls.
* And Pennsylvania is not the exception. Over the last month we have seen similar margins reached for Senators Reid, Boxer, Murray, Feingold and for Giannoulias’s campaign.
* Union members in West Virginia know who is on their side, giving Governor Manchin a whopping 40 point margin.
Per the AFL-CIO's stats, there are 37 competitive House districts with over 40,000 union voters. HI-01 has 87K, NY-24 has 96K, NV-03 has 80K, OH-13 has 95K, PA-12 has 105K. Those are real numbers, and locking down their support for Democratic candidates can be the deciding factor in what will shape up to be tight contests around the country.
Update: Blue Advaark does some math in the comments:
If there are 40k union members, a +8 break is 3200 votes. A +25 break is 10000 votes.
This improvement of ~6800 votes represents roughly 1% of the people in a House district, but of course not everyone is eligible to vote (e.g., children) and not everyone does vote.
Call it an improvement of 3 or 4 percent in 37 competitive House districts. I do believe that counts as good news.