Monmouth University just released a new poll of NY-19 (PDF) and it's a tight race:
In the election for New York’s 19th Congressional District, incumbent John Hall is in a virtual tie with his challenger Nan Hayworth. The Monmouth University Poll finds the incumbent Democrat with 49% of the vote and the Republican with 48% among likely voters in this district.
This is a race where you can make a difference. John Hall Act Blue page and John Hall campaign site.
More from the pollster:
There is an interesting and stark gender divide in New York’s 19th District. Male voters prefer the female challenger by a 57% to 42% margin, while female voters support the male incumbent by a similar 57% to 39% margin.
Hall has great support from Democrats. Nate Silver's 538 forecast of NY-19 has the Republican with a 78% chance of winning so this poll is arguably good news [sentence corrected from 51%, see comments].
The poll is of "636 likely voters from October 15 to 18, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.9 percent." We must make the actual voters include more Democrats all across the country.