Ralston:
Everything that has happened this year in the Reid campaign has been on an uncomplicated checklist that has arrived at the final task. It reads something like this:
A. Raise a fortune.
B. Batter Sue Lowden during the spring so she comes out of the June 8 primary wounded, ready for the killing blow; if by some chance we get lucky and get Sharron Angle, all the better.
C. On June 9, begin campaign to equalize negatives — no-holds-barred, relentlessly on-message destruction of opponent.
D. On Oct. 16, turn the key on The Greatest Turnout Machine Ever, designed to drag Democrats out of houses if necessary to save the senator and blunt the enthusiasm gap.
Having crossed off the first three, with some of the most beautifully ugly execution in campaign annals, the Reid campaign is now working on the fourth.
So how are things looking after several days of early voting?
have three days worth of data to peruse, just under a fourth of the 14-day total. Despite reports elsewhere, the Republicans have yet to show any unusual surge in voting, and The Reid Machine is holding its own.
So far, in the state’s two urban counties, the Republicans have less than a percentage point edge in turnout. If the Republican turnout edge by the end of early voting is 5 percent or so — standard for a midterm — the Democrats will be pretty happy, albeit edgy.
Now that gap is based on voter registration numbers. Because in raw terms, Democrats are actually leading at the moment:
Raw numbers in Clark:
Tuesday: Dems, 6,994; Rs, 5,543, rest, 2,456
Early: Dems, 28,672; Rs, 23, 580; rest, 7,084
Mail: Dems, 7,027; Rs, 5,770; rest, 1,898
Combined: Dems, 35,699, Rs, 29, 350; rest, 9,540
Raw numbers for Washoe:
Ds: 6,392 (7.4 percent)
Rs: 7,672 (8.8 percent)
That's why Reid could survive a 5 percent turnout deficit vis a vis the GOP, assuming he doesn't get walloped by independents. Still, it would be nice if Reid's vaunted machine could outperform the GOP's. But in this climate, that's likely asking for too much. Holding our own is accomplishment enough.