I have several concerns about a Clark candidacy in the general election. First and foremost, I am concerned that his lack of experience in running for office, his non-partisan history, and his late campaign start make him poorly prepared to respond to the Mighty Wurltizer that will be unleashed upon the eventual nominee.
Examples of this weakness have been his failure to quickly respond to the "conspiracy monger" meme and, most glaringly, his failure to properly respond to the Michael Moore/Bush Deserter challenge. Clark should have been able to knock this one out of the ballpark (hopefully he still will). Yet he never should have let Peter Jennings -- Peter Jennings!?! -- get him on his heels. My God, Wes Clark is playing defense in a battle of military records with George W. Bush!
Actually this leads me to my next concern. Wes Clark may be a Southerner In Name Only. I have been a huge critic of the so-called Democratic Southern Strategy. No, the Dems should not concede anywhere. No, they shouldn't ignore messages that appeal to rural voters. But, the idea that the Democratic party should radically alter its message and strongly target Southern states is really foolish. I say, just fire up the base on the coasts, focus on locking up the Midwest and Southwest, and make Bush have to win Florida to have a chance.
That aside, if the Democrats are going to pursue a Southern Strategy they must do it with a real Southern candidate. Clark does not seem to fit the bill. To prove this, just look at what a Southern nominee would ordinarily bring to the ticket.
1.
Shared values with Southern voters. Clark is very weak on this score. Clark has been forced to run left to prove his Dem cred. As a result, he has announced positions that are far more liberal than most of the field. His abortion position is so extreme (total choice up to actual delivery) that it could turn off some pro-choice Democrats. His most notable associations are with Madonna and Michael Moore (linking Clark to Moore is why I think the RNC has been pushing the risky Dubya/deserter meme). And unlike Edwards, Clark barely has a Southern accent.
Also, Clark's military persona leaves something to be desired. He is neither a swashbuckling Patton/MacArthur type like Schwartzkopf nor an ordinary joe type like Tommy Franks. He even lacks the steely demeanor of a Donald Rumsfeld, which could be particularly problematic. Simply put, the media loves the Rumsfeld-type who put the journalists in their place. No matter how wrong the guy may be, he will never act like anyone who is questioning him is anything other than a greenhorn civilian who has no business questioning a military professional. In contrast, Clark comes off as a soft spoken intellectual who gets a pleading tone in his voice that is almost a desperate begging to the journalist to pay attention. Not quite as pathetic as Dick Gephardt letting Judy Woodruff turn her back on him...but close.
Clark didn't even win a military conflict that was very popular in the South. All in all, not the ideal picture of Southern values.
2. Voter Support in the Region. Clark has never run for election in Arkansas. The voters are not familiar with him. In many ways he is almost as fresh a face as Howard Dean. Sure he can work at this, but if the strategy is to have a Southern edge why pick a guy with no political history there?
And a related issue...
3. Campaign Roots. Clark has not built up any emotional bond with campaign workers from past campaigns. His years spent in Washington and Brussels have not made him a familiar face in Arkansas. Sure, Clark may know the big names in the state, but he hasn't been in the trenches with the hundreds of grass-roots organizers that will be critical in the general election.
Clark would make a fine President. I think he can beat Bush if he learns to play hardball on the fly. But I think that anyone who is supporting him because they believe his Southern heritage and military resume will be a huge advantage in November -- instead of because they think he would be the best President -- is making a huge mistake.
I fear that Clark will be another Al Gore; an honorary Blue Stater that cannot deliver his own Southern state and does not have a Blue State of his own to guarantee.