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Last update was the 19th so this represents 1 days of polling. There is no associated article at 538, just updated data.
This table shows the projected number of Democratic Senators, Republican Senators, and other (Crist, Murkowski) per Nate's model as of the indicated dates. The % chance of GOP takeover is the chance of the Republicans reaching 51 seats in a 'wave' election.
| Dem | Rep | Other | %chance GOP takeover |
---|
Oct. 20 | 52.1 | 47.8 | 0.1 | 16 |
Oct. 19 | 51.9 | 48.1 | 0.1 | 17 |
Oct. 14 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 0.1 | 18 |
See
my diary of the 14th for Act Blue links.
The closest states, plus Alaska. The D-R columns show the percentage polled by the Democrat per Nate's model, minus the percentage polled by the Republican. The percentage chance columns represent Nate's modeled probability of a Democratic victory in that state.
State | Democrat | Republican | D-R | D-R 19th | D-R 14th | % chance D | % chance D 19th |
---|
WI | Feingold | Johnson | -5 | -7 | -7 | 11 | 6 |
PA | Sestak | Toomey | -5 | -8 | -8 | 17 | 6 |
CO | Bennet | Buck | -1 | -2 | -2 | 40 | 34 |
NV | Reid | Angle | -1 | -1 | -1 | 39 | 38 |
IL | Giannolias | Kirk | -1 | -0 | +0 | 45 | 46 |
WV | Manchin | Raese | +1 | +1 | +1 | 58 | 62 |
CA | Boxer | Fiorina | +4 | +4 | +5 | 83 | 82 |
WA | Murray | Rossi | +5 | +4 | +4 | 89 | 84 |
KY | Conway | Raul | -6 | -7 | -6 | 11 | 11 |
NH | Hodes | Ayotte | -8 | -8 | -7 | 8 | 8 |
AK | McAdams | Miller | +13 | +12 | ? | ? | ? |
In Alaska, there is a 4% chance that Miller does not win. That 4% belongs to Murkowski, not McAdams, as the numbers are 39 - 34 - 26 with McAdams in last.
Good news in WI, PA, NV, CO, CA, WA, KY.
Bad news in IL, WV, AK.
Mathematically, we gained .05 + .11 + .06 + .01 - .01 - .04 + .01 + .05 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 0.24 Senators over these 11 races. Most of that gain came from four races: WI, PA, CO, and WA. The erosion in WV offsets most of a Feingold or Murray improvement.