A reasonably quiet Thursday, populated by mostly internal House polls, greets us with this edition of the Wrap. Just 28 polls make the cut tonight, as opposed to nearly double that just two days ago.
GOP internal polls make up about one-third of the data, and they are particularly dreary. On the bright side, Connecticut looks stronger and stronger for the Democrats, and a pair of Democratic polls show better-than-expected news for two quality Democratic incumbents.
All this (and more!) in the Thursday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
THE ANALYSIS: When even the folks at Quinnipiac, who have been as bearish as anyone about Democratic prospects, have this one as a two-point race, I think it is now fair to say that the Toomey-Sestak showdown is a tossup. What's more, if Dems wake up in the Keystone State, that could have major league repercussions for the battle for control of the House.
Meanwhile, all the pundits calling Connecticut a toss-up will have some serious egg on their face, if the new poll from Suffolk University is to be believed. Speaking of eggs and faces, I'd like to be about the 100th voice in the progressive blogosphere to thank the Democratic establishment, for backing Blanche Lincoln and saving us from that "unelectable" Bill Halter. Well played, kids!
THE U.S. HOUSE
- Florida-22 (Susquehanna--R):
Allen West (R) 47%, Rep. Ron Klein (D) 44%
- Maryland-01 (Monmouth Univ):
Andy Harris (R) 53%, Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) 42%
- Massachusetts-04 (Fleming and Associates):
Rep. Barney Frank (D) 49%, Sean Bielat (R) 37%
- Massachusetts-10 (GOP Internal Poll):
Jeff Perry (R) 42%, Bill Keating (D) 36%
- Minnesota-01 (Grove Insight--D):
Rep. Tim Walz (D) 50%, Randy Demmer (R) 34%, Others 5%
- Mississippi-04 (Tarrance Group--R):
Steven Palazzo (R) 43%, Rep. Gene Taylor (D) 41%
- New Mexico-02 (Tarrance Group--R):
Steve Pearce (R) 50%, Rep. Harry Teague (D) 41%
- New York-20 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Chris Gibson (R) 44%, Rep. Scott Murphy (D) 42%
- New York-22 (Magellan--R):
Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) 43%, George Phillips (R) 43%
- North Carolina-11 (G.Q.R.--D):
Rep. Heath Shuler (D) 54%, Jeff Miller (R) 39%
- Oregon-05 (SurveyUSA):
Scott Bruun (R) 51%, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 41%
- Pennsylvania-06 (Monmouth Univ):
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) 54%, Manan Trivedi (D) 44%
- Pennsylvania-17 (Susquehanna--R):
Rep. Tim Holden (D) 58%, Dave Argall (R) 28%
- Virginia-02 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Scott Rigell (R) 46%, Rep. Glenn Nye (D) 41%, Others 5%
- Virginia-05 (Benenson--D):
Rob Hurt (R) 47%, Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 46%, Others 3%
THE ANALYSIS: A lot of internal polling in the pile tonight, and some of it is pretty shocking. It was doubtful that anyone had Maurice Hinchey on their vulnerable list, for example. Hopefully, we'll see some counterprogramming from team Hinchey soon. It is good, meanwhile, to see internals showing Tim Walz well ahead of Republican Randy Demmer, to say nothing of Tom Perriello still slugging away in the Virginia 5th. The public polling is pretty pessimistic today. Regarding what might be the worst poll for Dems: SUSA has had some wild ones, and Dems have to hope that the Oregon 5th is just the latest example.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES:
THE ANALYSIS: Only a trio of polls on the gubernatorial front, with two of them providing pretty good news for Democrats. PPP has Pat Quinn still viable in Illinois, despite an approval rating in the 30s. Tom Jensen cautioned, though, that Quinn's viability might be dependent on the third-party candidates snaring a significant vote total. He compared the race (and this would be eminently frustrating for Democrats) to last year's New Jersey gubernatorial election. Meanwhile, Connecticut looks more and more like a Democratic flip, while Tom Corbett gains four points from last night's incarnation of the Muhlenberg tracker.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
No big shockers from the House of Ras today, although they did head back to North Dakota (and the news, predictably, is bad for the Democrats). Rasmussen, however, is not immune to trends spotted by their competitors. They have Vincent Sheheen closer to Nikki Haley in South Carolina, and the Dems pulling away in the Empire State.
IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 45%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 37%, Others 9%
NY-Sen A: Sen. Charles Schumer (D) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 31%
NY-Sen B: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 54%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%
ND-AL: Rick Berg (R) 52%, Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 42%
SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R) 47%, Vincent Sheheen (D) 38%