Like I tell in my last diaries, I will write about unpolled races what are so interesting. These races can have some lean toward the democratic side, but can be competitives.
The first of these races will be the race for New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands. This is a statewide elected office in New Mexico, and it is open this year because the current incumbent P Lyons (R) is term limited. I think this can be a so good chance of gain a new office.
The democratic candidate this year is Ray Powell. Born in 1950?, he hold this office since 1993 until 2002, when he was term-limited. He run again in 2006 for this office losing the democratic primary against J Baca, also a former NM Commissioner of Public Lands (1982-1986 and 1990-1993) and former Mayor of Albuquerque (1997-2001).
The republican candidate is Matthew Rush. Born in 1974, he is a farmer without experience in public offices, but seems a decent candidate with so good financial support. He leads the fundraising for this race.
I know not polls for this race. I think they are not.
This is the code for some statewide offices included in the next boxes (quotes):
AG=Attorney General
SS=Secretary of State
ST=State Treasurer
SC=State Comptroller
SA=State Auditor
IC=Insurance Commissioner
CL=Commissioner of Labor
My modest numbers (I use the same numerical criteria for all the offices)give me these results for the elections at this point:
REPUBLICANS FAVORED AT THIS POINT
LEANS REPUBLICAN OR WORSE
Here I include only the offices what are now in democratic hands.
SENATE (3D):
ND-Sen
IN-Sen
AR-Sen B Lincoln
GOVERNOR (7D):
WY-Gov
KS-Gov
TN-Gov
MI-Gov
PA-Gov
IA-Gov C Culver
HOUSE (19D):
TN-06
KS-03
IN-08
NY-29
AR-02
TN-08
WI-07
LA-03
MI-01
FL-02 A Boyd
IL-11 D Halvorson
PA-03 K Dahlkemper
OH-16 J Boccieri
NH-01 C Shea-Porter
TX-17 C Edwards
GA-08 J Marshall
OH-01 S Driehaus
TX-27 S Ortiz
OH-15 M Kilroy
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (5D):
KS-LG
LA-LG
MI-LG
OK-LG
IA-LG P Judge
STATEWIDE OFFICES (15D):
OK-AG
AR-CSL (Commissioner of State Lands)
IL-SC
GA-CA
OK-ST
GA-AG
FL-CFO (Chief Financial Officer)
AL-CAI (Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries)
AZ-AG
OK-SPI (Superintendent of Public Instruction)
KS-SS C Biggs
KS-ST D McKinney
KS-AG S Six
NM-SS M Herrera
OK-CL L Fields
TOSS-UP TILT REPUBLICAN
Symmetric criteria for both sides
SENATE (2D):
PA-Sen J Sestak
WI-Sen R Feingold
GOVERNOR (4D):
NM-Gov
ME-Gov
WI-Gov
OH-Gov T Strickland
HOUSE (21D):
PA-07
WA-03
AR-01
FL-24 S Kosmas
VA-02 G Nye
WI-08 S Kagen
CO-04 B Markey
VA-05 T Perriello
MD-01 F Kratovil
CO-03 J Salazar
FL-08 A Grayson
MS-01 T Childers
TX-23 C Rodriguez
PA-10 C Carney
NM-02 H Teague
NY-23 W Owens
AZ-01 A Kirkpatrick
NJ-03 J Adler
IL-14 W Foster
NY-19 J Hall
MI-07 M Schauer
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (4D 1R):
NM-LG
WI-LG
AR-LG
OH-LG
SC-LG
STATEWIDE OFFICES (10D 1R):
OK-SA S Burrage
OK-IC K Holland
CO-ST C Kennedy
IL-ST
CO-SS B Buescher
OH-AG R Cordray
AR-SS
MO-SA S Montee
OH-ST K Boyce
GA-CL
OH-SA
I have low hope of keep these offices in the democratic side or win someone new after the elections. Maybe someone, but would be very few. Then, net loses until now:
Senate = - 5
Governor = - 11
House = - 40
Lieutenant Governor = - 9
Statewide offices = - 25
PURE TOSS-UP
Symmetric criteria for the offices of both sides:
SENATE (2D):
NV-Sen H Reid
IL-Sen A Giannoulias
GOVERNOR (1D 1I):
IL-Gov P Quinn
FL-Gov A Sink
HOUSE (17D 3R):
VA-11 G Connolly
NC-02 R Etheridge
PA-11 P Kanjorski
IL-17 P Hare
PA-08 P Murphy
NY-20 S Murphy
OR-05 K Schrader
NH-02 A Kuster
SC-05 J Spratt
NV-03 C Titus
OH-18 Z Space
AZ-08 G Giffords
IL-08 M Bean
ND-AL E Pomeroy
SD-AL S Herseth-Sandlin
IN-09 B Hill
MO-04 I Skelton
AZ-03 J Hulburd
FL-25 J Garcia
FL-12 L Edwards
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (1D 1R):
IL-LG S Simon
FL-LG R Smith
STATEWIDE OFFICES (3D):
CA-AG K Harris
OH-SS M O'Shaughnessy
SC-SE (Superintendent of Education) F Holleman
In this group they are some underpolled races (House), and new polls would help for improve the rating. I think they are a decent chance of keep the majority of these offices after the elections. If not, the results will be very bad.
DEMOCRATS FAVORED AT THIS POINT
TOSS-UP TILT DEMOCRATIC
Symmetric criteria for both sides
SENATE (1D):
CO-Sen M Bennet
GOVERNOR (1D 1R):
OR-Gov J Kitzhaber
VT-Gov P Shumlin
HOUSE (6D 1R):
CO-07 E Perlmutter
CA-20 J Costa
OH-13 B Sutton
MA-10 W Keating
PA-12 M Critz
WV-01 M Oliverio
HI-01 C Hanabusa
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (1D 1R):
AL-LG J Folsom
CA-LG G Newsom
STATEWIDE OFFICES (3D 1R):
IA-SS M Mauro
DE-ST C Flowers
NV-SC K Marshall
VT-SA D Hoffer
LEANS DEMOCRATIC OR BETTER
Here I include only the offices what are now in republican hands except some unpolled offices what make me feel some risk still. These unpolled offices are alone statewide offices because all the races for the senate, governor, house and lieutenant gouvernor what can give some doubt have some poll.
SENATE (0R):
---
GOVERNOR (5R):
CT-Gov D Malloy
HI-Gov N Abercrombie
CA-Gov J Brown
MN-Gov M Dayton
RI-Gov F Caprio/L Chafee
HOUSE (3R):
LA-02 C Richmond
IL-10 D Seals
DE-AL J Carney
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (3R):
CT-LG N Wyman
HI-LG B Schatz
MN-LG Y Prettner Solon
STATEWIDE OFFICES (2D 2R):
OR-ST T Wheeler
MN-SA R Otto
CA-IC D Jones
NM-CPL (Commissioner of Public Lands) R Powell
I think few of these offices will end in republican hands despite I have still as Lean democratic (using the same numerical criteria than for all the other races) some races what have still good polls but can go to worse in the polls of the next days. I think some bad predictions can be leading the polls of the last days for some offices (house seats).
The symmetric net gains in this group of Toss-Up Tilt Democratic or better would be:
Senate = 0
Governor = + 6
House = + 4
Lieutenant Governor = + 4
Statewide offices = + 3
Still I'm not able for give concret numbers for gains and loses, because it is too early for it. Still I need to know the information of the last days. I'm undecided about some of the races rated as pure Toss-Up, and some of the races whit better rating make me feel some doubt. Then, I give numerical ranges still:
Senate = - 5 to - 7
Governor = - 4 to - 6
House = - 33 to -53
Lieutenant Governor = - 4 to - 6
Statewide offices = - 22 to - 25
I bold emphasize the races what will be in this diary the last days before the elections. They are interesting races but they are out the media and can give good results for the democratic side.
NM-PCL: R Powell (D) vs M Rush (R) after 10 votes = 05.167 => Toss-Up
MN-SA: R Otto (D) vs P Anderson (R)
OR-ST: T Wheeler (D) vs C Telfer (R)