Quinnipiac. 10/18-24. Likely voters. MoE 3.5% (10/10 results)
Marco Rubio (R) 42 (44)
Charlie Crist (I) 35 (30)
Kendrick Meek (D) 15 (22)
These are the best numbers for Crist in a long time, and the worst for Meek, who has been at 20% or lower in five straight polls. The trends:
It's clear that Meek is fading, but what's not clear is that Crist is picking up that support. Meanwhile, Rubio is vacuuming up much of the undecided. And it's not hard to see why -- he's gotten a virtual free pass as Meek and Crist nuke each other over the Democratic vote, splitting the left and moderate voters.
One bit of good news for Crist -- Democratic early voting has been exceptionally slow in Florida this year, and anecdotally, it seems that Democrats are holding off on casting their ballots because of the complicated Senate race. It's clear Crist still has a shot with that crowd, but he'll likely have to make a dramatic gesture to win a significant enough percent of Democratic votes to have a prayer of toppling Rubio.
At this point, days out before the election, it's obvious that it's either Crist or Rubio. The only drama left is whether Democrats despise Rubio enough to vote tactically against him. It would help him significantly if Crist promised to caucus with the Democrats.