I hope that the Dems maintain control of Congress. But there are dangerous things that may happen that we need to plan for.
Democrats on Capitol Hill and K Street are increasingly convinced that Speaker Nancy Pelosi would have little interest in being Minority Leader -- and may start preparing to leave Congress altogether -- if Republicans win the House next week.
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Should Republicans sweep into power on Nov. 2, the pivotal question that some Democrats have begun contemplating is one of timing: Does Pelosi step aside immediately, or does she stick around for a few months as Minority Leader to help smooth the transition to her successor? Both scenarios assume Pelosi heads for the exits within a few weeks or months.
So who will succeed her?.
Steny Hoyer doesn't clank when he walks — but it's hard to imagine any Democrat mustering up the courage to take him on for party leader if the majority falls. Hoyer offers the customary denials that he even thinks about a post-Pelosi world, but behind the scenes his advisers are "planning for all eventualities," a top Democratic insider tells us.
If Pelosi resigns or retires, the most likely eventuality is that Hoyer jumps right into the minority leader race with a promise to bring together the liberal and moderate wings of the party.
Hoyer is usually aligned with the bad elements of the current Congress, such as desperately trying to give republicans a victory on the Obama middle class tax cuts.
Democrats will not rule out compromising with Republicans on the Bush tax cuts benefiting the wealthiest Americans, according to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer.
Or helping to muddle Dem messaging on Social Security:
He said Congress should consider defense cuts as well as "a higher retirement age," possibly as life spans lengthen, for Social Security beneficiaries.
On taxes, Mr. Hoyer was less specific. He talked about raising "revenue more fairly and efficiently," language used by supporters of a value-added tax.
I think we should work on primarying him in 2012, but the more immediate problem will be his taking control of the party after the elections.
Still, Hoyer needs to watch his left flank. There are rumblings that Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson of Connecticut could make a play for party leader, arguing for fresh ideas and fresh leadership. Moderates get all the attention in tight races, but it's liberals who completely dominate the caucus, so a serious challenge is plausible. The bigger the loss, the better the chance of a real race. If the net loss exceeds 55, pull up a chair.
Nancy Pelosi has been the best Speaker in decades, both (reasonably) progressive and very skilled. I hope she chooses to stay in the leadership even if she is in the minority. But we also need to "prepare for eventualities" and prevent the party from taking the right turn that villagers and the corporatists want us to.