I could make the obligatory Halloween-themed clever metaphors about tricks, treats, and frightening polls. After all, I write this as an alarmingly high number of adorable small costumed children (and several nearing the age of consent that really ought to be over the trick-or-treat thing by this point) come to our door for the socialist redistribution of the candy.
But, damn...there are 136 of these things that have accumulated since the last edition of the Wrap on Thursday night. So, the clever bon mots have to wait. There are numbers to be digested.
We can, however, take a look at a couple of themes that have developed late in the campaign before we head below the fold (yes, for the first time, the Wrap is too big to leave here on the FP).
- The number of toss-up races is unprecedented: That is the biggest takeaway. The bad news for Democrats is that they are in the incumbent party in almost every race in a playing field that is the widest, quite literally, in decades. The good news for the Dems is if they can manage even the tiniest bit of wind at their back on Tuesday, the outcome may not be nearly disastrous as is almost uniformly predicted. The converse, of course, is also true: if that tailwind fails to appear, it could be truly disastrous for the Democrats.
- The RV/LV gaps are enormous, and have not closed: In 2006/2008, the majority of polls measuring both "registered voters" (RVs) and "likely voters" (LVs) were somewhere between 0-2 points. In 10 out of 17 Senate polls beneath the fold which broke out RV vs. LV results, the gap was five points or wider. Either the pollsters are assuming way too much, or Wednesday morning is going to suck. A lot.
And, with that, head beneath the fold for what is a gigantic Halloween edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
- Alaska Senate (Dittman Research):
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (WI) 37%, Joe Miller (R) 27%, Scott McAdams (D) 23%
- California Senate (Field Poll):
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 41%
- California Senate (YouGov):
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%
- Colorado Senate (Marist/McClatchy):
Ken Buck (R) 49%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 45%, Others 3%
- Colorado Senate (YouGov):
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 49%, Ken Buck (R) 48%, Others 1%
- Connecticut Senate (PPP):
Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%
- Connecticut Senate (YouGov):
Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%, Others 1%
- Delaware Senate (Monmouth):
Chris Coons (D) 51%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 41%
- Florida Senate (Mason Dixon):
Marco Rubio (R) 45%, Charlie Crist (I) 28%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%
- Florida Senate (Susquehanna--R):
Marco Rubio (R) 47%, Charlie Crist (I) 27%, Kendrick Meek (D) 23%
- Florida Senate (YouGov):
Marco Rubio (R) 42%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%
- Georgia Senate (Mason Dixon):
Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) 56%, Michael Thurmond (D) 33%, Others 4%
- Iowa Senate (Selzer):
Sen. Charles Grassley (R) 61%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 30%
- Illinois Senate (YouGov):
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%
- Kansas Senate (SurveyUSA):
Jerry Moran (R) 66%, Lisa Johnston (D) 26%, Others 6%
- Kentucky Senate (PPP):
Rand Paul (R) 55%, Jack Conway (D) 40%
- Kentucky Senate (YouGov):
Rand Paul (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 44%
- Missouri Senate (Missouri State Univ):
Roy Blunt (R) 54%, Robin Carnahan (D) 41%
- Missouri Senate (YouGov):
Roy Blunt (R) 54%, Robin Carnahan (D) 43%
- New Hampshire Senate (PPP):
Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%, Paul Hodes (D) 41%
- Nevada Senate (Mason Dixon):
Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 45%
- Nevada Senate (YouGov):
Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 47%
- New York Senate "A" (Marist):
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 60%, Jay Townsend (R) 36%, Others 1%
- New York Senate "A" (Siena):
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 64%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%, Others 1%
- New York Senate "A" (SurveyUSA):
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 62%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%, Others 4%
- New York Senate "A" (YouGov):
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 35%
- New York Senate "B" (Marist):
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 55%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 40%, Others 1%
- New York Senate "B" (Siena):
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 37%, Others 1%
- New York Senate "B" (SurveyUSA):
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 56%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 36%, Others 6%
- New York Senate "B" (YouGov):
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%
- Ohio Senate (Columbus Dispatch):
Rob Portman (R) 56%, Lee Fisher (D) 40%
- Ohio Senate (PPP):
Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%
- Ohio Senate (YouGov):
Rob Portman (R) 53%, Lee Fisher (D) 40%
- Oregon Senate (SurveyUSA):
Sen. Ron Wyden (D) 57%, Jim Huffman (R) 32%, Others 2%
- Pennsylvania Senate (Marist/McClatchy):
Patrick Toomey (R) 52%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%
- Pennsylvania Senate (Muhlenberg College):
Patrick Toomey (R) 45%, Joe Sestak (D) 43%
- Pennsylvania Senate (PPP):
Patrick Toomey (R) 51%, Joe Sestak (D) 46%
- Pennsylvania Senate (Susquehanna--R):
Patrick Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%
- Pennsylvania Senate (YouGov):
Patrick Toomey (R) 50%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%
- Utah Senate (Dan Jones and Associates):
Mike Lee (R) 57%, Sam Granato (D) 30%, Others 5%
- Utah Senate (Mason Dixon):
Mike Lee (R) 48%, Sam Granato (D) 32%, Others 5%
- Washington Senate (SurveyUSA):
Sen. Patty Murray (D) 47%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%
- Washington Senate (Univ of Washington):
Sen. Patty Murray (D) 51%, Dino Rossi (R) 45%
- Washington Senate (YouGov):
Sen. Patty Murray (D) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%
- West Virginia Senate (PPP):
Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 46%
- Wisconsin Senate (Marist/McClatchy):
Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 45%, Others 1%
- Wisconsin Senate (YouGov):
Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 46%
THE ANALYSIS: Sweet lord, where to begin?!?! Two things are evident looking at this data:
- If the enthusiasm gap is overstated, Democrats might do much better than expected on Election Night. Both the YouGov and the Marist/McClatchy sets of polls went to the trouble of breaking out LV/RV statistics. If you look just at the RV data, both Boxer and Giannoulias are no longer even close, while Sestak, Bennet, and Reid all move into a lead in one or both polls.
- Democratic control of the Senate seems close to assured. California and Washington are close, but seem to be just a few points to the good for the Democrats.
If there is a crushing disappointment for Democrats, it is that no race (outside of Alaska, perhaps) is even in range for a pickup. The three that seemed like the most attractive targets have all moved rapidly away from us at the close: Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
THE U.S. HOUSE
- Connecticut-04 (Merriman River Group):
Dan Debicella (R) 48%, Rep. Jim Himes (D) 46%
- Connecticut-05 (Merriman River Group):
Sam Caliguiri (R) 47%, Rep. Chris Murphy (D) 46%
- Delaware-AL (Fairleigh Dickinson):
John Carney (D) 53%, Glen Urquhart (R) 36%
- Delaware-AL (Monmouth College):
John Carney (D) 51%, Glen Urquhart (R) 44%
- Hawaii-01 (NRCC Internal Poll--R):
Rep. Charles Djou (R) 51%, Colleen Hanabusa (D) 45%
- Idaho-01 (Greg Smith and Associates):
Rep. Walt Minnick (D) 48%, Raul Labrador (R) 38%
- Indiana-03 (Riggs Research--D):
Tom Hayhurst (D) 40%, Marlin Stutzman (R) 36%
- Kansas-04 (SurveyUSA):
Mike Pompeo (R) 54%, Raj Goyle (D) 38%, Others 5%
- Massachusetts-10 (NRCC Internal Poll--R):
Jeff Perry (R) 45%, Bill Keating (D) 43%
- Maine-01 (Critical Insights):
Dean Scontras (R) 45%, Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 41%
- Maine-02 (Critical Insights):
Rep. Michael Michaud (D) 44%, Jason Levesque (R) 40%
- Michigan-09 (Great Lakes--R):
Rocky Raczkowski (R) 48%, Rep. Gary Peters (D) 43%
- Minnesota-08 (SurveyUSA):
Rep. Jim Oberstar (D) 47%, Chip Cravaack (R) 46%, Others 3%
- Missouri-04 (Missouri State Univ):
Rep. Ike Skelton (D) 46%, Vicky Hartzler (R) 39%
- Missouri-04 (NRCC Internal Poll--R):
Rep. Ike Skelton (D) 45%, Vicky Hartzler (R) 44%
- Missouri-07 (Missouri State Univ):
Billy Long (R) 52%, Scott Eckersley (D) 23%, Others 7%
- New Mexico-01 (Albuquerque Journal):
Jon Barela (R) 49%, Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) 46%
- New Mexico-02 (Albuquerque Journal):
Steve Pearce (R) 48%, Rep. Harry Teague (D) 45%
- Nevada-03 (Mason Dixon):
Joe Heck (R) 53%, Rep. Dina Titus (D) 43%, Others 1%
- Nevada-03 (NRCC Internal Poll--R):
Joe Heck (R) 49%, Rep. Dina Titus (D) 42%, Others 3%
- Pennsylvania-11 (NRCC Internal Poll--R):
Lou Barletta (R) 47%, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 45%
- Rhode Island-01 (Fleming and Assoc):
David Cicilline (D) 48%, John Loughlin (R) 42%
- Rhode Island-01 (Quest Research):
David Cicilline (D) 42%, John Loughlin (R) 40%, Others 9%
- Rhode Island-02 (Fleming and Assoc):
Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 55%, Mark Zaccaria (R) 32%
- Rhode Island-02 (Quest Research):
Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 54%, Mark Zaccaria (R) 19%, Others 9%
- Utah-01 (Dan Jones and Assoc):
Rep. Rob Bishop (R) 66%, Morgan Bowen (D) 21%
- Utah-01 (Mason Dixon):
Rep. Rob Bishop (R) 65%, Morgan Bowen (D) 13%
- Utah-02 (Dan Jones and Assoc):
Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 51%, Morgan Philpot (R) 39%
- Utah-02 (Mason Dixon):
Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 48%, Morgan Philpot (R) 35%
- Utah-03 (Dan Jones and Assoc):
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) 70%, Karen Hyer (D) 19%
- Utah-03 (Mason Dixon):
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) 56%, Karen Hyer (D) 11%
- Virginia-05 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Rob Hurt (R) 45%, Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 42%, Others 6%
THE ANALYSIS: If you are a pessimist, looking at this smattering of data will make you mournful that folks like Jim Oberstar, Martin Heinrich, and Chellie Pingree look very embattled heading into Tuesday. If you are an optimist, you note how close many of these races are, as even GOP internal polls now show once left-for-dead names like Paul Kanjorski and Tom Perriello within striking range. The uncertainty in this election is unlike any other, and it justifies Nate Silver's claim a few weeks back that outcomes from a mere 20-seat loss to a catastrophic 80-seat loss were within the realm of possibility.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
- California Governor (YouGov):
Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%
- Colorado Governor (Marist/McClatchy):
John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 7%
- Colorado Governor (YouGov):
John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 40%, Dan Maes (R) 9%
- Connecticut Governor (PPP):
Tom Foley (R) 49%, Dan Malloy (D) 47%
- Connecticut Governor (YouGov):
Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 45%, Others 1%
- Florida Governor (Univ of South Florida):
Rick Scott (R) 44%, Alex Sink (D) 39%, Others 6%
- Florida Governor (YouGov):
Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 41%
- Georgia Governor (Mason Dixon):
Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%, Others 6%
- Iowa Governor (Selzer):
Terry Branstad (R) 50%, Gov. Chet Culver (D) 38%
- Illinois Governor (YouGov):
Bill Brady (R) 47%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 40%
- Kansas Governor (SurveyUSA):
Sam Brownback (R) 59%, Tom Holland (D) 32%, Others 7%
- Massachusetts Governor (Suffolk Univ):
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 46%, Charlie Baker (R) 39%, Tim Cahill (I) 9%
- Massachusetts Governor (Western NE College):
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 42%, Charlie Baker (R) 37%, Tim Cahill (I) 11%
- Massachusetts Governor (Baker Internal Poll--R):
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 40%, Charlie Baker (R) 40%, Tim Cahill (I) 10%
- Maine Governor (Critical Insights):
Paul LePage (R) 40%, Eliot Cutler (I) 21%, Libby Mitchell (D) 21%
- Michigan Governor (EPIC-MRA):
Rick Snyder (R) 55%, Virg Bernero (D) 37%
- Minnesota Governor (PPP):
Mark Dayton (D) 43%, Tom Emmer (R) 40%, Tom Horner (I) 15%
- Minnesota Governor (SurveyUSA):
Mark Dayton (D) 39%, Tom Emmer (R) 38%, Tom Horner (I) 13%
- New Hampshire Governor (PPP):
Gov. John Lynch (D) 53%, John Stephen (R) 44%
- New Mexico Governor (Albuquerque Journal):
Susana Martinez (R) 52%, Diane Denish (D) 42%
- Nevada Governor (Mason Dixon):
Brian Sandoval (R) 54%, Rory Reid (D) 38%, Others 4%
- Nevada Governor (YouGov):
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 40%
- New York Governor (Marist):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 56%, Carl Paladino (R) 37%, Others 3%
- New York Governor (Siena):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%, Others 3%
- New York Governor (SurveyUSA):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%, Others 9%
- New York Governor (YouGov):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 57%, Carl Paladino (R) 27%
- Ohio Governor (Columbus Dispatch):
John Kasich (R) 49%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 47%
- Ohio Governor (PPP):
John Kasich (R) 49%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 48%
- Ohio Governor (YouGov):
John Kasich (R) 48%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 45%
- Ohio Governor (Strickland Internal Poll via email--D):
Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 46%, John Kasich (R) 42%
- Oregon Governor (SurveyUSA):
John Kitzhaber (D) 48%, Chris Dudley (R) 41%, Others 2%
- Pennsylvania Governor (Marist/McClatchy):
Tom Corbett (R) 51%, Dan Onorato (D) 44%
- Pennsylvania Governor (Muhlenberg):
Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%
- Pennsylvania Governor (PPP):
Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%
- Pennsylvania Governor (Susquehanna--R):
Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%
- Pennsylvania Governor (YouGov):
Tom Corbett (R) 50%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%
- Texas Governor (Blum and Welprin):
Rick Perry (R) 49%, Bill White (D) 37%, Others 5%
- Utah Governor (Dan Jones and Assoc):
Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 63%, Peter Corroon (D) 29%
- Utah Governor (Mason Dixon):
Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 59%, Peter Corroon (D) 32%
- Wisconsin Governor (Marist/McClatchy):
Scott Walker (R) 51%, Tom Barrett (D) 44%
- Wisconsin Governor (We The People):
Scott Walker (R) 44%, Tom Barrett (D) 36%, Others 2%
- Wisconsin Governor (YouGov):
Scott Walker (R) 53%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%
THE ANALYSIS The RV/LV gap is apparent here as well: amazingly, the Marist poll actually has Tom Barrett leading in Wisconsin with the less restrictive registered voters screen. There is another unique 2010 polling anomaly that was highlighted in a gubernatorial poll. In Oregon, SUSA broke with their typical protocol and included cell-phone only households in their polling. The end result: a race that they had as an absolute coinflip for months now leans Democratic by seven points. Democrat John Kitzhaber enjoyed a double-digit edge among those cell-phone only households.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras looks to close with a flourish, with a lot of late numbers. There aren't a ton of surprises here, as Ras mostly holds to form. They do become the first pollster to show a lead of any size for Democrat Peter Shumlin in Vermont.
AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 53%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%
AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) 52%, Rodney Glassman (D) 32%
AR-Gov: Gov. Mike Beebe (D) 60%, Jim Keet (R) 38%
AR-Sen: John Boozman (R) 55%, Blanche Lincoln (D) 36%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%
CO-Gov: Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tancredo (C) 42%, Maes (R) 7%
FL-Sen: Rubio (R) 50%, Crist (I) 30%, Meek (D) 16%
KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) 53%, Jack Conway (D) 41%
MA-Gov: Gov. Patrick (D) 46%, Baker (R) 44%, Cahill (I) 6%
NH-Gov: Gov. John Lynch (D) 51%, John Stephen (R) 45%
NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%, Paul Hodes (D) 41%
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 33%
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 43%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 50%, Joe Sestak (D) 46%
VT-Gov: Peter Shumlin (D) 50%, Brian Dubie (R) 45%