With the election now four weeks and one day away, the Wrap is conducting a little bit of experimentation to kick off the week. A slight format shift lies beneath, with last week's swollen Wraps of 35-45 polls acting as the catalyst. Despite the fact that tonight's Wrap is tad lighter (topping out at 26 polls), consider this preparation for the 50+ polling days coming up later in the months.
Feel free to offer your two cents in the comments.
Tonight, a shocker of a new poll puts Democratic Governor Pat Quinn (IL) into a lead in a place where he hasn't held a lead of more than a point in over six months. We also have some daylight in a couple other races long thought competitive (NH-Gov, CT-Sen). That's the good news.
The bad news? Right wing Indie Tom Tancredo (CO-Gov) might be on the move, while Democrat Diane Denish (NM-Gov) is not.
All that (and more!) on the Monday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
- California Senate (SurveyUSA):
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%, Others 9%
- Colorado Senate (SurveyUSA):
Ken Buck (R) 48%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 43%
- Connecticut Senate (PPP):
Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 41%
- Florida Senate (Public Opinion Strategies (R):
Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%, Kendrick Meek (D) 16%
- Florida Senate (Miami-Dade College):
Marco Rubio (R) 46%, Charlie Crist (I) 27%, Kendrick Meek (D) 26%
- Illinois Senate (Suffolk Univ.):
Mark Kirk (R) 42%, Alexi Giannoulias 41%, Others 7%
- Maryland Senate (Washington Post):
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) 61%, Eric Wargotz (R) 29%
THE ANALYSIS: The Connecticut numbers from PPP are a welcome surprise in the wake of last week's heart-stopping numbers from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen. SUSA sees a little tightening in California, but wait to see if anyone else corroborates it before wondering if it is legit. The Miami-Dade College poll is the first to show Meek and Crist running neck-and-neck. However, and this is worth noting, I have never actually seen a poll from Miami-Dade college.
THE U.S. HOUSE
THE ANALYSIS: A mini-polling dump from the DCCC gives us new numbers that look good for Dem rookies Scott Murphy and Bobby Bright, with the leading margins similar to previous Democratic internal numbers. The GOP counters with New York-20 numbers of their own, but even the GOP's version of the numbers gives Murphy the lead there. Meanwhile, the Albuquerque Journal numbers include margins in the House races that are identical to our own PPP/Daily Kos numbers at the end of September. Via Twitter, we also get word of a GOP internal purporting electoral danger for longtime Minnesota Rep. Jim Oberstar. Let's just say that one appears a bit more dubious than most internals.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
THE ANALYSIS: Opinions will vary, but the poll that sticks out here for me is the NH-Governor poll, given that UNH also had Kelly Ayotte up 15 on Paul Hodes at the same time. No one, and I mean NO ONE, had a nearly thirty-point swing in opinion between these two contests. That said, UNH does occasionally release some eyebrow-raisers, so this may well be par for the course. The Illinois poll is getting a lot of eyes because it gives Quinn the biggest lead he has enjoyed since March. However, there has been a distinct movement in that race building for some time (a fact I noted yesterday in my Sunday Kos piece). In more somber news, whatever advantage the Democrats might have enjoyed in Florida seems to have dissipated. While this is a GOP poll taken for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, it manages to fall somewhat in line with what other several polls have shown over the last ten days.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Anyone interested in having more Ras in their lives can click the link. The news here is...well...not much news. The House of Ras has Tommy Tancredo making a big move in Colorado, which is pretty typical Ras. Atypical Ras: Jerry Brown up five in California.
AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) 54%, Rodney Glassman (D) 33%
AR-Gov: Gov. Mike Beebe (D) 51%, Jim Keet (R) 41%
AR-Gov: John Boozman (R) 55%, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 37%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%
CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Tom Tancredo (I) 35%, Dan Maes (R) 16%
WY-Gov: Matt Mead (R) 61%, Leslie Peterson (D) 25%
WY-AL: Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R) 61%, David Wendt (D) 29%