Thursday election edition.
Nate Silver:
So, there is not actually much evidence of unusually deep problems among the Democratic base, as some commentators have suggested. Are there groups within the Democratic base which have not seen the progress they might have hoped for? Sure. Might Democratic enthusiasm have been higher — closer to 2006 levels — if these groups felt President Obama had done more for them? Probably. Would meeting their expectations have been politically feasible — and politically wise? You’d have to take up that question on a case-by-case basis.
Rather, it's Republicans that are more enthusiastic than usual. Because they smell a win? Because they don't have to explain away Bush? We'll see.
Ezra Klein:
Here's my prediction for health-care repeal: The GOP will either never really try it, lose on it, or, most likely, cut a deal to add some more conservative pieces to the bill (think malpractice reform, more consumer-driven plans and other things they could've gotten by just negotiating in the first place). But Republicans who think this is going to be easy because public opinion is against the Democrats should remember that before Democrats got a specific bill, public opinion was overwhelmingly on their side. When Republicans are forced to get specific about repeal, they're going to find themselves just as -- if not more -- unpopular. If you're not comfortable explaining why you let someone's house burn down, you're really not going to like explaining why you let insurers turn their sick child away.
CBS:
Sarah Palin is viewed unfavorably by nearly 50 percent of Americans, a new CBS News poll
Sarah Palin
finds, a significant challenge for her to overcome should she enter the 2012 presidential race.
Run, Sarah, run!
Tom Jensen/PPP:
When PPP first surveyed the Connecticut Governor's race in January Dan Malloy [D] led Tom Foley [R] by 10 points. Fast forward 9 months and things haven't changed at all. Democrats won't pick up a lot of offices they don't already hold in 2010 but it appears CT-GOV will be one of them. Malloy leads Foley 50-40.
CNN:
The suburbs are usually the key to Connecticut elections and this one is no exception. "Blumenthal has a 15 point lead in the suburbs," notes Holland. "McMahon appears to have the advantage in rural Connecticut, but there just aren't enough voters in those areas to outweigh the suburban vote."
There's also a huge gender gap - men are "virtually tied", but Blumenthal leads with women by 27.
Speaking of gender gaps, from the NY Times:
Abortion rights is the flash point, being wielded by the left in hard-fought races from New York’s contest for governor, to Senate races in Florida and California, as Democratic candidates or groups try to rally their base and attract moderate Republican or independent women — a slice of the electorate that is even more coveted than in years past.
Sam Stein:
"Joe Miller followed Linda McMahon into the snakepit of minimum wage," said Eric Schultz, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "Last week, Republicans in Washington tried to stop the outsourcing of American jobs. This week Republicans seem intent on getting rid of the minimum wage. What exactly do Republicans have against America workers?"
NY Times on honeybee colony collapse:
Research several years ago at the University of California, San Francisco, had already identified the fungus as part of the problem. And several RNA-based viruses had been detected as well. But the Army/Montana team, using a new software system developed by the military for analyzing proteins, uncovered a new DNA-based virus, and established a linkage to the fungus, called N. ceranae.
"Our mission is to have detection capability to protect the people in the field from anything biological," said Charles H. Wick, a microbiologist at Edgewood. Bees, Dr. Wick said, proved to be a perfect opportunity to see what the Army’s analytic software tool could do. "We brought it to bear on this bee question, which is how we field-tested it," he said.
Congrats Roy Halladay and the Phillies!
As the Philadelphia Phillies opened their October campaign to defend their National League title, Halladay did what only one man had done before, he pitched a no-hitter in the playoffs.
Yankees fans know him very well. He's a good great pitcher.