Taken from a couple proposition exchanges, here are lists of the last trade prices. These are like stock markets for future events. A higher number means more likely to happen. For example, at Tradesports Dean to win the nominee is trading at 65.2, meaning that you can buy the proposition for $6.52 and if it wins, you will get paid $10.00. In all markets, President Bush has a solid lead (at some places as good as a 1 ot 2 bet), so there is much to be gained if you think Dean will win.
Tradesports.com
- Democratic Nominee:
- Iowa Caucus:
- New Hampshire Primary:
- Presidential Election Winner:
- Presidential Election by State (these are Bush Win propositions):
- Alamaba 95.0
- Alaska 93.0
- Arizona 85.0
- Arkansas 68.0
- California 21.0
- Colorado 85.0
- Connecticut 32.0
- Delaware 53.0
- Florida 69.0
- Georgia 95.0
- Hawaii 13.0
- Idaho 95.0
- Illinois 45.0
- Indiana 85.0
- Iowa 72.0
- Kansas 92.0
- Kentucky 93.0
- Maine 50.0
- Maryland 22.0
- Massachusetts 17.0
- Michigan 57.0
- Minnesota 52.0
- Mississippi 96.0
- Missouri 72.0
- Montana 95.0
- Nebraska 95.0
- Nevada 82.0
- New Hampshire 70.0
- New Jersey 25.0
- New Mexico 73.0
- New York 22.0
- North Carolina 94.0
- North Dakota 95.0
- Ohio 79.0
- Oklahoma 95.0
- Oregon 63.0
- Pennsylvania 62.0
- Rhode Island 17.0
- South Carolina 95.0
- South Dakota 95.0
- Tennessee 90.0
- Texas 98.0
- Utah 95.0
- Vermont 13.0
- Virginia 94.0
- Washington 53.0
- West Virginia 63.0
- Wisconsin 61.0
- Wyoming 95.0
Foresight Exchange
- Bush Remains President: 64
- Dean Elected: 30
- Democrat Elected by 2008: 73
Iowa Electronic Markets (these are are per dollar, so 0.665 is the same as 6.65 at Tradesports)
- Democratic Nominee:
- Dean: 0.665
- Gephardt: 0.120
- Clark: 0.115
- Presidential Election: (these include the likelihood of the candidate winning the primary, so that is why they are so low).
- Dean Beats Bush: 0.300
- Bush Beats Dean: 0.343
- Gephardt Beats Bush: 0.068
- Bush Beats Gephardt: 0.048
- Clark Beats Bush: 0.061
- Bush Beats Clark: 0.055