PPP is throwing water Dems' optimism in Washington state, with Rossi leading 50-48.
Neither candidate has much in the way of support across party lines- Rossi's winning 93% of Republicans and Murray's winning 91% of Democrats. That means independents, as they are in so many races across the country, are making the difference for the GOP here. Rossi leads Murray with them by a 54-42 margin.
The most worrisome number for Murray within the poll, beyond her small overall disadvantage, is that among voters who say they've already returned their ballots Rossi's advantage is wider at 52-47. Murray's ability to keep the race close is predicated on the 24% of respondents who have not yet done so returning their ballots. That group supports her by a 51-45 margin.
Washington has one of the more severe enthusiasm gaps in the country. Barack Obama won the state by 17 points in 2008 but those planning to vote this year supported him by only a 7 point margin. If Democrats in the state vote at a higher rate than response to our poll suggested over the weekend that would likely be enough to put Murray over the top.
And that's where we have the major contradiction in recent polls. PPP in WA-08 a few weeks ago found no enthusiasm gap and last week's Washington poll found that Dems were more enthusiastic about voting than teabaggers. We've also seen a very high rate of return on mail-in ballots in heavily Democratic King Co.
In other words, who the hell knows what's happening in Washington, other than high turnout in King County will be critical for Murray. It also means a probable long delay in final results, since King County takes forever to count ballots, and they'll be trickling in all week, since they only have to be post-marked by election day, not received on election day.