The lack of breaking polling information caused by the end of the 2010 elections has left poll junkies such as myself with a void in our daily routines. While I am still reflectively opening my bookmarks to polling websites, it is usually only after I notice the lack of new polls on Senate battlegrounds and generic congressional ballots that I remember the 2010 election is over.
Now, in order to get my fix for polling, I have started to look at historical surveys. In so doing, I have discovered what are, at least to me, some stunning revelations about public opinion on American involvement in overseas wars during the past century.
Some of these polls might surprise you, too. Consider:
1. World War One was deeply unpopular.
Although public opinion polling was not around during World War One, there are strong suggestions that the public was deeply opposed to American involvement in the war.
For one thing, in 1920, two years after the official end of the war on the Western front, Democrats suffered the most severe defeat of any major party in any Presidential election in American history. The ticket of James Cox, and some politically toxic VP nominee nicknamed FDR (who totally should have retired from politics, instead of endangering the electoral future of the Democratic Party), lost the popular vote by 26.17%. Electoral luminaries such as Hebert Hoover, Alf Landon, Barry Goldwater, George McGovern, and Walter Mondale all did better than Democrats did in 1920. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for President Woodrow Wilson’s post-election reversal on American involved in the Great War.
Secondly, once public opinion polling did start appearing in the 1930’s, early surveys on World War One showed only 28% of the country thought entering the war was a good idea, while 64% opposed it. Even as public opinion in favor of war increased after France fell to Nazi Germany during World War Two, only 42% of the country thought entry into World War One was a good idea, while 39% of the country still considered it a mistake. Given this, it seems unlikely that public support for World War One was ever in the majority.
2. Younger Americans were significantly more in favor of the Vietnam War than older Americans.
Check out the age crosstabs on this 1970 Gallup poll on the Vietnam War:
During both the early and later stages of the Vietnam war, older Americans were actually the core of opposition to the war, while younger Americans were the core of support. That is in stark opposition to the cultural memory on the divide over Vietnam, which generally portrays it as dovish college hippies vs. hawkish older conservatives.
Being born in 1974, I neither have any first-hand experience of how the national divide was portrayed during the Vietnam War, nor any clear idea of how our collective memory of that divide has became so disconnected from demographic reality. Perhaps the most prominent protests were dominated by young Americans. Perhaps the divide over Vietnam has been mistakenly folded into the massive, concurrent cultural divide between the generations. If anyone could provide any thoughts on this in the comments, I’d love to read them.
3. Reports on violence in Iraq decreased support for troop withdrawal.
Finding these older polls also reminded me of some more recent, surprising polls on our current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Take, for example, this poll from Time in mid-2007:
Q 83) As you may know, a report about the situation in Iraq by General David Petraeus, the Commander of U.S. forces, and others is scheduled to be released next week. If the report says that the situation in Iraq is IMPROVING, what should the U.S. do next: should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq? QUESTIONS 83-84 WERE ROTATED.
Increase: 6%
Keep the same: 32%
Decrease: 39%
Remove All Troops: 17%
DK / NA: 6%
Q 84) If the report says that the situation in Iraq is GETTING WORSE, what should the U.S. do next: should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq? QUESTIONS 83-84 WERE ROTATED.
Increase: 16%
Keep the same: 27%
Decrease: 25%
Remove All Troops: 22%
DK / NA: 9%
Americans were much more supportive of withdrawing troops from Iraq in 2007 if they were told things were going well in the country. As such, media reports on violence, which were often echoed and emphasized by online progressives to help make the case for withdrawing troops, were actually decreasing public support for withdrawal. At the same time, pro-escalation Republicans attacked the news media for focusing too extensively on violence in Iraq. They did so in the mistaken belief that such stories would increase public support for troop withdrawal.
As it turns out, the media strategy on both sides of the debate was self-defeating.
4. Afghanistan
There are quirks to public opinion and Afghanistan, too. Most notably, back in 2009, Democrats approved of President Obama’s handling of the war by a 2-1 margin, even though they opposed his policies by the same 2-1 margin. Meanwhile, Republicans disapproved of President Obama’s handling of the war by a 3-1 margin, even though they approved of his policies by a 3-1 margin. It would seem that on Afghanistan, most people were (and likely still are) approving or disapproving of President Obama’s partisan affiliation, rather than his policies.
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I share all this with you not with any specific point in mind, except perhaps that we should be wary of making assumptions about what American the public thinks of our involvement in overseas wars. It isn’t as easy to stereotype as one might expect.