All morning I've been reading the
wise and dark words of people who remind us that this filibuster fight, good though it feels, is too little, too late. If Kerry and the Dems were serious, they'd have been organizing this from DC for months. This last stand is to score points with the grassroots and maybe send a message, but it isn't really being played to win, because it almost can't be: we barely have the numbers to imagine success, and we almost certainly don't have the numbers to attain it.
And lastly, no one has outlined a path to something that can credibly be called victory.
Well, this is a stretch, but it would certainly be a victory. A real, outside-the-box, beltway media coup. Cross the jump with me, please.
Durbin said a week ago that he could imagine 37 or 38 votes against cloture, but not 40. If our efforts on behalf of Kerry's late push to filibuster are successful, then we should be able to hit that 38 mark at least.
We need 41 votes to beat cloture. That number might be able to include abstentions from the likes of Salazar and Pryor and the New Jersey boys. I'm suggesting that our goal should be to get to 40, so that we can offer Linc Chafee the chance to be the 41st vote. He could, in one fell swoop, kill the Alito nomination, switch parties, ensure his reelection, detonate the Senate, and completely shit on Bush's State of the Union. He'd be re-electable for life, and it's a great big bang of a way to switch. He and the Democrats would be smacking the president around on the eve of his speech and his springtime push, and Chafee would be joining a winning team, and looking powerful in the process. The press coverage would be incredible, and would reinforce some great narratives. For a variety of reasons, it could be really appealing to him. Read on with me.
Chafee's been down this road before. He was heavily courted to switch in 2001, when control of the Senate was in balance. His switch was considered a realistic possibility even then, with his next re-election 5 years away.
He was beat to the punch by Jeffords. Once the chamber had flipped, the deal for Chafee wasn't nearly as sweet. The incentives come when your switch packs real heat for your new friends, and Jeffords won that particular prisoner's dilemma.
In November 2002, the Ds lost two seats; in 2004, they lost three more. There was little incentive for Chafee to switch into a minority, and he didn't. He was offered another chance in mid-2005, when the primaries for this coming election were being set. He declined to save his hide then. However, at that time nothing on the Senate agenda was at stake, his actions couldn't have flipped the chamber or even any major legislation, the Ds were very weak nationally, and Chafee didn't know about Steve Laffey. Since mid-2005, Katrina Iraq and Abramoff have stung the Rs, the Ds look increasingly strong for the 2006 elections, and Steve Laffey has challenged Chafee from the right, forcing an R primary.
Chafee's now looking down a double-barreled gun. Laffey's on his right with a primary, the Ds are coming on strong in the general. No matter how he votes on Alito, he's going to hurt himself badly in one of those elections. Right now, CW is that he'll vote yes on Alito to save his hide in the primary, and just hope for the best in the general. (If he's positioning himself more for the primary than the general, by the way, you know that Laffey scares him.)
Now that something extremely meaningful is on the agenda, and now that 41 and not 51 votes are needed to make a difference, Ds are in the position to make a mutually sweet deal with Chafee. If he switches parties, he saves himself from the primary and saves himself from the general. As a D, Chafee can be re-elected with ease as long as he wants. He'll also have helped define the Supreme Court, and looked like a really powerful player in the process. He'll have given his new friends a win on something they care deeply about, and given a major defeat to the party that mocked and primaried him. Chafee wouldn't even vote for W; in 2004 he wrote in G H W Bush. He's a pro-choice moderate who hated Bolton, hated Janice Rogers Brown, liked O'Connor, and can't possibly be thrilled about anti-choice, anti-Congress, unitary-executive Alito. Chafee's been miserable in the Republican party, and right before the State of the Union, on a Supreme Court vote, would be an absolutely golden time to make his move.
The press coverage would be incredible -- bigger even than when Jeffords flipped. The narrative would be exactly what Chafee wants: "Bush alienates moderates!" (And exactly what we want: "Direction of Court at stake!") There'd be detailed coverage of why Chafee (and Scowcroft, and Powell, and Whitman, and Barr, and Jeffords, and so many other Rs) disagree with the president, why they're so angry, how badly they've been treated, and how powerful they are when they finally signal they've had enough. His co-stars would be the united Ds, with many of the same complaints and the same new proof of strength. If Chafee and the Ds win a cloture vote right before the State of the Union, the Rs will have to choose whether to go nuclear right away, or whether to suffer the punch all the way into Bush's speech. They probably won't be able to whip that vote in time, and Bush will go into his speech angry and sullen and damaged, with a loser narrative written all over him and a surprise-winner narrative written all over the Dems.
Having sustained a filibuster AND flipped a Senator will force the press to take Democratic arguments seriously; they won't be obstructionist sore losers if they're winning senate seats mid-term. Gaining Chafee would bring us credibility and respect that we deserve but aren't getting from the victory-obsessed mainstream press. Sustaining a filibuster in such a flashy way would be a PR coup.
The Rs would have to try to go nuclear in a completely changed environment. They'd look like bitter sore losers; it'd be easier to bring out the point that they're breaking, not "changing", the rules. Plus, the national environment doesn't look half as good for them as it did in April 2005: Bush is an anvil, the elections are closer, competence is in doubt, the Ds look like winners going into 06, and enthusiasm for the nuclear option was never strong. Alito would also look much more extreme if he was enough to flip a Republican against him and inspire a united filibuster, and the whole country would be watching, unlike in 05. They might be so pissed off that they could get it passed, but it's not a sure thing. It's just as likely that Ted Stevens would tell Frist to go fuck himself, or Lindsay Graham would decide that the Rs were probably going to be the minority again sooner rather than later.
If the nuclear option does get pulled, then Harry Reid still gets to shut down the Senate. Coming right on the heels of the President's Big Night, in a strong election year, that would be great. Nothing could get passed, it would dramatize and highlight the conflicts between Ds and Rs, and it would immediately nationalize the Senate and House races. If you've looked at what the NRCC and NRSC have been saying, that's the very last thing they want. Nationalizing elections is the best way to overcome incumbent advantage, and if the Rs go nuclear and the Senate shuts down and the president is weak, 2006 could be a GREAT election year.
Chafee hasn't declared which way he's voting on Alito, and Snowe hasn't either. If Snowe, under no pressure of any kind, hasn't declared, it's because she really doesn't like Alito, and if she doesn't, than Chafee doesn't either. He's in an impossible position that he's got to resent, and the Ds could offer a perfect way out. Ds look like big winners going into 06 and 08. Chafee could save himself by joining a winning team, and he could bring a great big trophy with him. If Chafee plus the Ds can filibuster Alito, we'll have won a huge victory whether the Senate goes nuclear or not. It will also be a victory about real substance -- the composition of the Court -- and about an issue that people understand and care about, and if we believe the polling, agree with us on.
This is an attempt to find a path, even a less-than-likely path, to victory. Getting to 40 votes isn't impossible. Getting Lincoln Chafee also isn't impossible. The deal would work well for him -- Chafee isn't big on campaigning or fundraising, and that primary and that general are going to be hard-fought. If he switches parties, saves himself, and reels in a big fish, then he becomes important and potent and his new team's a winner. I doubt he's one for snap decisions, but the vote's on Monday and I'm sure he can recognize a good deal when he hears it.
There, at least, is a reason to go for the votes. There is a path to victory here. Anyone got Reid's office on speed-dial?