Approval numbers for some of the Senate Class of 2012, from PPP.
Senator Approval Spread
Olympia Snowe (R) 56/34 +22
Amy Klobuchar (D) 53/32 +21
Jeff Bingaman (D) 50/34 +16
Daniel Akaka (D) 49/35 +14
Dianne Feinstein (D) 50/37 +13
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 45/33 +12
Tom Carper (D) 45/36 +9
Jon Kyl (R) 47/39 +8
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 42/37 +5
Maria Cantwell (D) 44/41 +3
Bill Nelson (D) 37/35 +2
Herb Kohl (D) 41/40 +1
Bob Casey (D) 36/40 -4
John Ensign (R) 41/48 -7
Sherrod Brown (D) 31/40 -9
Debbie Stabenow (D) 38/50 -12
Claire McCaskill (D) 40/53 -13
Joe Lieberman (I) 33/54 -21
Lieberman won't be coming back. My only hope is that he's forcefully retired by the voters of his state, and doesn't take the easy way out with a retirement.
Nevada's Ensign is also history, but he won't even make it to the general election. Same thing with Maine's Snowe. They'll be primaried dead, and then we'll have two rare pickup opportunities for the cycle (along with Massachusett's seat held temporarily by Scott Brown). Snowe could always attempt a Lisa Murkowski-style write-in bid for the general, though she'd still be better off going independent from the start to save herself the hassle. So far, she claims she's sticking with the GOP.
Assuming the political climate doesn't improve for the Dems, McCaskill (MO), Stabenow (MI), and Brown (OH) are going to be in serious danger in tough, midwestern states. Ben Nelson's Nebraska is pretty much a guaranteed GOP pickup. He'll be the Blanche Lincoln of 2012. Pennsylvania's Casey is suffering from the malaise that is afflicting all Rust Belt Dems. His will be a tough hold. Maybe the GOP will help by nominating another Sharron Angle-style Republican to oppose him. Bill Nelson should benefit from a strong Obama push in Florida, but if the state looks out of reach at the presidential level, the Senate seat may be done. Tester will be in a fight for his life.
Rumors have swirled that Kohl will retire in Wisconsin and that Feingold could run for his seat. Those rumors don't seem to have anything beyond wishful thinking behind them, but hey, I'd go for that.
Maria Cantwell is looking better than I'd expect, and given that Dino Rossi's defeat against Patty Murray this year in Washington is at five points and still growing, maybe it's time for the three-time loser to call it quits. I'm not sure who else the GOPers might nominate that would be competitive in a state that was more resistant to the national anti-Dem trend. I'm particularly pleased with Klobuchar's numbers. Minnesota was somewhat rough for Democrats this year. She appears to be rising above that mess.
Utah's Orrin Hatch isn't on this list, but he's a goner. Republicans won't nominate him for another run. Kay Bailey Hutchison will also be a prime target for Texas and national teabaggers. She's likely done unless she goes independent. Neither Utah nor Texas have a Democratic Party able to capitalize on the Republican infighting.
Akaka will be 88 in 2012. Is he really going to run again? That flight between Hawaii and DC must be agonizing. Even if he does, however, Hawaii won't go Red in the Senate with Obama at the top of the ballot.
Can we primary Carper in Delaware?
Can we primary Feinstein in California?
Kyl... if Latinos are engaged and energized in 2012, Arizona might be in play. But given the depleted state of the Arizona Democratic Party, it'd be a tall order. Maybe the DSCC can get Janet Napolitano to run for the seat? Maybe Rep. Gabby Giffords, who just barely survived a reelection scare in a tough district?
Overall, it's clear that Dems are going to be playing a great deal of defense in 2012. It's not a favorable map. Not just the Democrats at the bottom of the list above, but several more not recently polled by PPP -- Kent Conrad in North Dakota, Jim Webb in Virginia, and Joe Manchin (again) in West Virginia.
In a bad climate, 2012 will be nightmarish for Senate Dems. If things improve, it'll merely be tough.