1,200 Texas adults were interviewed 6/23/06 - 6/25/06. Of them, 1,007 were Registered Voters. Of them, 576 were judged to be "likely" voters. MoE ± 4.2%
Candidate | June | May | April |
Rick Perry (R) | 35% | (41%) | (39%) |
Kinky Friedman (I) | 21% | (16%) | (16%) |
Chris Bell (D) | 20% | (18%) | (15%) |
Carole Strayhorn (I) | 19% | (20%) | (25%) |
Other | 2% | (1%) | (3%) |
Undecided | 3% | (3%) | (3%) |
Crosstabs |
While this is now the
2nd tracking poll putting Kinky Friedman in 2nd place, here it is a statistical 3 way tie for 2nd place, echoing
previously expressed opinions of mine. Relative to where people were a month ago the only statisticly meaningful moves that are outside of the MoE are Perry's loss of 6% and Kinky's gain of 5%. Longer term, Bell is consolidating the base as Carole flakes off voters.
In the crosstabs there are some gender lines (Carole pulling woman, Kinky pulling men). In terms of age, Kinky pulls more of the youth vote (tied at 28% with Perry), Carole is even everwhere, and Bell and Perry have a hole and hill respectively in support among 50-64 year olds.
In terms of racial groups, the high/low distribution for each group is as follows.
Whites: Perry-40% / Bell-13%
Blacks: Bell-55% / Kinky-6%
Hispanic: Perry 32% / Kinky 19%
(mostly even here, but a large problem that Perry wins the Hispanics)
On partisan lines, we see Republicans for Perry (58%) split evenly next between the indies, with few interested in Bell (6%). For Democrats, Bell now has 44%, split evenly next to the indies and 12% go to Perry. For Independents, Kinky eats up 37%, split between Strayhorn and the Perry, with little interest in Bell (10%).
Ideologically there is an interesting blip. Kinky scored 2nd behind Perry among Conservative voters while at the same time matching Bell for first among Liberal voters (34% each). While not helpful to Bell at all, I've seen this in Kinky's voters as he pulls in casual rural Republicans as well as urban liberals (though only the white ones).