Judging by the 67-28 cloture vote just completed on the New START Treaty, the final vote will be no problem. Republicans voting to move forward on the treaty were Lamar Alexander, Bob Bennett, Scott Brown, Thad Cochran, Susan Collins, Johnny Isakson, Dick Lugar, Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe, and George Voinovich. The final vote will possibly be as early as tomorrow. Given that, with Ron Wyden's probable absence as he recovers from prostate cancer surgery, the treaty will need only 66 votes to achieve a two-thirds majority, passage is all but assured.
In case you're wondering what's actually in this treaty, here's a good primer from the folks at the Congressional Research Service.
New START provides the parties with seven years to reduce their forces, and will remain in force for a total of 10 years. It limits each side to no more than 800 deployed and nondeployed ICBM and SLBM launchers and deployed and nondeployed heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear armaments. Within that total, each side can retain no more than 700 deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear armaments. The treaty also limits each side to no more than 1,550 deployed warheads; those are the actual number of warheads on deployed ICBMs and SLBMs, and one warhead for each deployed heavy bomber.
New START contains detailed definitions and counting rules that will help the parties calculate the number of warheads that count under the treaty limits. Moreover, the delivery vehicles and their warheads will count under the treaty limits until they are converted or eliminated according to the provisions described in the treaty’s Protocol. These provisions are far less demanding than those in the original START Treaty and will provide the United States and Russia with far more flexibility in determining how to reduce their forces to meet the treaty limits....
New START does not limit current or planned U.S. missile defense programs. It does ban the conversion of ICBM and SLBM launchers to launchers for missile defense interceptors, but the United States never intended to pursue such conversions when deploying missile defense interceptors. Under New START, the United States can deploy conventional warheads on its ballistic missiles, but these will count under the treaty limit on nuclear warheads. The United States may deploy a small number of these systems during the time that New START is in force.
Missile defense, the old, tired dream of Ronald Reagan, just won't die despite the fact that in a quarter of a century of research and development a working system has yet to materialize. But we can still waste all the money we feel we need to on it, this treaty won't prevent that.
Update: Lindsey Graham's knickers are getting more twisted by the day.
Look, I get that being an elected member of the world's greatest deliberative body is a really awesome gig, with lots of perks -- secret holds, Senators-only elevators -- that encourage a rather outsized view of the importance of individual Senators.
But it seems particularly ludicrous that at a presser today, Senator Lindsey Graham actually apologized to Jon Kyl on behalf of the rest of the Senate, because it isn't doing his bidding and instead is ratifying New START.