There is a common misconception that when we start running out of oil we can just turn to nuclear power. The fact is that power production from nuclear sources is in decline and stopping this decline is problematic. The idea that nuclear power can fill the energy gap in the face of dwindling oil supplies is seriously overoptimistic.
The idea is also advanced that thorium can be a viable fuel for our future energy needs. This is also a very optimistic hope. Thorium fast breeder reactors are by design much more dangerous than conventional nuclear reactors. Further, our world's experience with thorium has produced little if any energy.
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We can thus conclude Part I: Nuclear Fission Energy Today, with the statement that publicly available official data are inconsistent with the widespread belief that the world is in a "Nuclear Energy Renaissance" phase. In reality, the data about uranium mining and the large number of aging nuclear reactors indicate that the trend of a 1% annual decrease of fission produced TWhe will continue at least up until 2015. In fact, the increasingly serious uranium supply situation might even lead to a forced nuclear shutdown of perhaps 5% of the world-wide reactors, most likely in countries without sufficient domestic uranium mining and enrichment facilities. Such a result would certainly end the widespread belief in a bright future for nuclear fission energy.
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Similar basic energy numbers can be found on the Internet at the IEA website [4] and at many other websites. As fossil fuel resources, and especially oil and gas, are not renewable, it is obvious that the world-wide energy mix of today is totally unsustainable.
While it is generally accepted that fossil fuels will not last forever, the energy situation is mainly discussed in relation to its effects on global warming. This is reflected in various high-level meetings, where climate change and other side effects of our energy use are on the agenda of world-wide policy makers. Even though the recent price explosions for crude oil have resulted in some policy changes, the serious consequences of limited oil and gas resources are rarely discussed. If addressed at all, one finds that they are discussed under the more ambiguous heading of "energy security."
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In this fourth and final part of our analysis about the Future of Nuclear Energy, we have presented status and prospects for nuclear fuel breeder fission reactors and the true situation as it relates to nuclear fusion.
Despite the often repeated claims that the technology for fast reactors is well understood, one finds that no evidence exists to back up such claims. In fact, their huge construction costs, their poor safety records, and their inefficient performance give little reason to believe that they will ever become commercially significant.
Indeed, no evidence has been presented so far that the original goal of nuclear fuel breeding has been achieved. The designs and running plans for the two FBR's, currently under construction in India and in Russia, do not indicate that successful breeding can even in principle be achieved.
Nevertheless, assuming that extensive and costly efforts are being undertaken during the next 20-30 years, a remote possibility of mastering nuclear fission breeder reactor technology can still be imagined. However, it is unclear if (1) enough highly enriched uranium remains to start future commercial breeder reactors on a large scale in 30-40 years from now, and (2) if the people in rich societies will accept risky and costly research efforts during times of economic difficulties. In any case, fast breeder reactors, even under the most optimistic assumptions, will come far too late to compensate for the looming energy decline following the peaking of oil and gas.
In contrast to the remaining open questions relating to fission breeders, we find that the accumulated knowledge about nuclear fusion is already now large enough to conclude that commercial fusion power is not only 50 years away, but that it will always be 50 years away.
The current situation concerning the future of nuclear energy appears in many respects similar to the one described in a famous fairy tale [44], but with a slightly modified ending:
"In the coming 'autumn and winter' of our industrial civilization brought on by the decline of fossil fuels, it seems clear that the clothes of the Nuclear Fission Energy emperor are far too thin to keep him and others warm, and that the Nuclear Fusion Emperor has no clothes at all!"