Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/8-2/10. Likely Voters. No trend lines.
Republican Primary Election
Gov. Rick Perry 42
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 30
Debra Medina 17
Buoyed by having the highest favorability spread among Republicans (though, by far, the lowest with the general electorate), Governor Rick Perry leads his two rivals in the competitive three-way GOP primary coming up on March 2nd.
However, it looks like Perry might be hard pressed to make it to a majority of the GOP electorate, meaning that the incumbent might be forced into a runoff on April 13th. Anticipating that, potential runoffs were also polled, though admittedly the odds of a Hutchison-Medina runoff are more than a little remote:
Republican Primary Runoffs
Gov. Rick Perry 43
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 33
Gov. Rick Perry 44
Debra Medina 23
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 38
Debra Medina 30
Perry clearly has not sealed the deal with either the Medina or the KBH vote in a runoff, as his runoff totals are only scant improvements over the amount he receives in a three-way tabulation. This is somewhat intriguing, since Medina is seen as the far-right candidate, while Hutchison is what passes for a "moderate" Republican in Texas.
Awaiting the GOP nominee, in all likelihood, will be former Houston Mayor Bill White, who has held significant leads in every Democratic poll to date. Recent polls by both PPP and Rasmussen have shown that White could be potentially competitive in November. This is a point confirmed by the general election trial heats in our DK/R2K poll:
General Election
Gov. Rick Perry (R) 46
Bill White (D) 42
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 47
Bill White (D) 41
Debra Medina (R) 44
Bill White (D) 43
White is presently in striking distance, no matter which Republican emerges from a bruising primary. As evidence of exactly how bruising this primary has become, there are more Republican undecideds than either Independents or Democrats.
Incidentally, this poll was conducted before upstart Republican challenger Debra Medina seemed to imply a certain degree of kinship with the 9/11 truther movement (though she later vehemently denied it). Medina said on the Glenn Beck show that "the American people have not seen all of the evidence there." The following day, Medina dug in a bit deeper, likening trutherism to...well...birtherism:
The 9/11 Commission report, you know, great sections of that are redacted and they’re top secret. That makes us all wonder, well what’s happening back there? The same is true with the birth certificate thing. I think it’s healthy that people are asking questions.
It will be intriguing to see how big a liability, if at all, this will be with the Texas GOP primary electorate.