The filibuster reform fight is getting more interesting. This morning, David wrote about the burgeoning effort among Senate Dems to prime the procedural pump to be ready at the beginning of the next Congress to change the filibuster rule, and the current Majority Leader, Harry Reid's opposition to doing that just now.
The way things have gone with this magical window of opportunity in the past -- at least, when it's been used successfully -- is that once the process is thrown wide open and Senators can see the writing on the wall, people begin looking for compromise. A successful invocation of this beginning-of-a-new-Congress procedure leaves the Senate staring into the abyss. The filibuster can be eliminated entirely, or the Senate can agree by simple majority vote to some alternative cloture procedure. First they agreed to adopt the basic cloture procedure (requiring a 2/3 vote at the time). Later, they agreed to lower that threshold to 3/5. The next time, it could perhaps be a proposal like that from Sens. Harkin and Shaheen that becomes the compromise. Or, or course, it could end up being something else. But if Senators know this day is coming and come to believe the necessary votes are there, they're going to want to have alternatives to the current Rule XXII available, and the ones that get the widest play before game day just might stand the best chance of becoming the new standard. So that's why the Harkin-Shaheen proposal matters, even if it can't pass now....
Come January, it's not likely that Harry Reid's personal opinion will be driving things. The vote count alone will set the pace. And if cloture reform is something you want to see happen, it'll be your job between now and then to make sure your Senators -- whomever they may be in January 2011 -- know that in no uncertain terms.
It would seem that Dick Durbin has all of that in mind. Greg Sargent:
Senator Dick Durbin is now throwing his weight behind a new effort to reform the filibuster, a move that could give it a boost, given Durbin’s clout as a senior member of the Dem leadership.
Durbin spokesman Joe Shoemaker confirms to me that the Senator supports the new effort, which was unveiled yesterday by Senators Tom Harkin and Jeanne Shaheen.
The Harkin proposal would officially amend the process by which a filibuster is broken, allowing a four-step process that could eventually allow it to be broken by a majority vote. The first vote would require 60 votes to break the filibuster, followed by motions requiring 57, 54, and finally, 51 votes.
The key is that Durbin is apparently playing an active role in backing the Harkin effort. A senior leadership aide tells me Durbin is "in talks with a number of other Democratic senators regarding possible changes to Senate rules."
It's also possible that Durbin is using this to position himself as a real reformer in the potential leadership fight he'll have with Chuck Schumer if Harry Reid doesn't come back to Congress next January. Either way, Durbin's support for this reform is significant, making it just a little bit likelier that there will be filibuster reform in the next Congress.