All in all, a reasonably quiet President's Day in the world of electoral politics.
Well, except for that whole Evan Bayh thing...
THE U.S. SENATE
AZ-Sen: This is (Not) Good News For John McCain
It now looks like the anti-incumbent vote in the GOP Senate primary in the Grand Canyon State will be coalesced around one candidate. Longshot GOP contender Chris Simcox ended his bid, and endorsed challenger J.D. Hayworth. Simcox had some wingnut street cred as one of the heads of the Minuteman movement, but he was polling in the single digits. The Hill, meanwhile, reports that this one could get ugly quickly, as both McCain and Hayworth are pulling out the scandal "Greatest Hits" from the archives, with both Jack Abramoff and Charles Keating being reintroduced to the voters.
CA-Sen: Rasmussen Polls Cali, Finds GOP Competitive (No...Really)
The Ras-a-palooza continues unabated, with two new polls from the GOP-friendly pollster (that would prefer to now be known as a "media company", thank you). One comes from the Golden State, where Rasmussen has all three major GOP candidates within five points of the incumbent, Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina both lie four points behind Boxer, while more conservative option Chuck DeVore is down five.
IN-Sen: Do Dems Already Have Replacement For Bayh?
It did not take long for one of the bigger Democratic players in Indiana politics to make it clear that he was not slamming the door on a possible Senate bid. Congressman Brad Ellsworth, who has represented the 8th district since 2006, said that he would consider running to replace Bayh in the Senate. He promised to take a few days mulling it over. Ellsworth would be a viable statewide candidate, but he would open up a district that could be a tough hold for Dems in any year, but particularly in a down cycle.
LA-Sen: Slightly Dusty Rasmussen Poll Has Huge Vitter Lead
Accidentally missed this one in the flood of Rasmussen polling from last week: they have incumbent GOP Senator David Vitter well ahead of Democratic challenger Charlie Melancon in their latest poll in the Pelican State. Vitter leads Melancon, 57-33, according to the pollster, which is a six-point bump in the Republican's direction since the last poll there by Rasmussen a few months back.
MD-Sen: Brief Mikulski Rumor Quickly Extinguished
In the wake of the rather surprising news that Senator Evan Bayh, on the cusp of Indiana's filing deadline, was stepping aside, a brief boomlet of rumors (here is one source for it) began to spread that Senator Barbara Mikulski would also retire. This one, however, was quickly batted down, with Chris Cilizza, among others, claiming sources denying the rumor. Even if it were to occur, a Mikulski retirement would be less perilous than Bayh's. Not only is Maryland more amenable territory politically, but there are several months for Democrats to find a suitable replacement. Mikulski is golden politically in the state, however, and should be safe as an incumbent.
WA-Sen: More Rasmussen Recruitment Via Polling in Murray Race
As they have done on a couple of occasions (see: Pence in Indiana and Thompson in Wisconsin), Rasmussen takes a shot at trying to lure a wavering Republican into a Senate race. In this case, it is two-time GOP gubernatorial contender Dino Rossi. Rasmussen has Rossi up two (48-46) on incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray. Against candidates that have actually indicated that they are running, however, Murray enjoys double-digit leads. Longtime state Senator Don Benton comes closest for the GOP, trailing Murray by twelve (50-38).
THE U.S. HOUSE
IL-11: Kinzinger Accused Of Exaggerating Military Record
A harsh accusation on a thorny subject. This is not exactly how one wants to kick off a general election campaign. Adam Kinzinger, the GOP nominee to challenge Democratic freshman Deborah Halvorson, had to change his website's biography page after an Air Force officer writing on Facebook questioned whether Kinzinger was burnishing his own credentials. The officer in question, a Floridian named William Walter, accused Kinzinger of "using his military rank, position, and false AFSOC (Air Force Special Operations Command) credentials to try to 'wow' voters." Not surprisingly, the GOP candidate fired back, along with the NRCC, claiming that Democrats were up to dirty tricks. Kinzinger did change the biography, but said he only did so in order to avoid further confusion about his military experience.
MA-10: Delahunt Rumors Refuse To Dissipate
On the heels of a GOP internal poll showing longtime Massachusetts Congressman Bill Delahunt vulnerable, rumors began to take flight about his potential exit from Congress, rumors given oxygen by Delahunt's own reluctance to bat them down. Now, we have moved to stage two of the rumor mill--as Glenn Thrush at Politico is actually speculating about which Democrat is being groomed to take Delahunt's spot (hint: the surname is a familiar one to Massaachusetts voters).
PA-12: Dominoes Start to Fall As Hafer Declares For Congress
A week after the passing of longtime SW Pennsylvania Congressman John Murtha, one of the first major players on the Democratic side has declared that she will seek the seat. Former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer announced her intentions today, but did add a critical caveat. She will stand down if Joyce Murtha, the widow of Congressman Murtha, elects to run for Congress.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
IA-Gov: New DMR Poll Puts Culver Well Behind Branstad
There is good news and bad news for incumbent Democratic Governor Chet Culver. Well, okay, it is mostly bad news. According to a new poll for the Des Moines Register, Culver's approval ratings have taken a beating, and he currently trails the presumptive GOP frontrunner, former Governor Terry Branstad, by twenty points (53-33). There is some semi-good news: he is either competitive with, or leading, the other three GOP first-tier candidates. And, as has been noted in past months, Branstad may well face the wrath of the teabaggers, as his primary challenges are mostly to his right.
TX-Gov: (Yet) Another Lone Star State Poll Confirms Recent Trends
Blum and Welprin, on behalf of a host of Texas media outlets (including the Dallas Morning News), is the latest outlet to poll the competitive gubernatorial race in Texas (PDF file). As with other pollsters, incumbent Governor Rick Perry has the edge, but it is below the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff. The poll has Perry out in front with 45%, with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (29%) and Debra Medina (17%) trailing behind. The poll was conducted from February 2-10, and thus does not include virtually all of the birther/truther fun that Medina got herself tangled up in during the end of the week. Meanwhile, the American-Statesman polls the general election, and again finds likely Democratic nominee Bill White within single digits of either Perry (43-37) or Hutchison (42-34).