Some people seem to be distressing that the "
SKY IS FALLING" on top of us. The polls released in the past 48 hours are not what I or anyone who wants Bush gone would want. I would love to see us tied or ahead in all of these polls, but we're not. This ISN'T a diary to explain away the polls. I think, on balance, Kerry is probably 2-4 points behind. Leave behind the party ID methodology of some of these polls, If you either average or account for the MARGIN OF ERROR, all the polls released in the past 48 hours can agree on around a 4 point lead for BUSH. That's not beyond the realm of reason. Bush doesn't have a lead for us to start packing a suitcase for RIO. What's being missed in these polls, is that all of them show Kerry making up ground & getting some traction on his emphasis on IRAQ...
IBD/CSM/TIPP - Sept. 22-27, 2004
KERRY 46 (KERRY UP 3 FROM PREVIOUS POLL)
BUSH 45 (BUSH DOWN 1 FROM PREVIOUS POLL)
CNN/USATODAY/GALLUP - Sept. 24-26, 2004
BUSH 52 (BUSH DOWN 3 FROM PREVIOUS POLL)
KERRY 44 (KERRY UP 2 FROM PREVIOUS POLL)
ABCNEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL - Sept. 23-26, 2004
BUSH 51 (BUSH DOWN 1 FROM PREVIOUS POLL)
KERRY 45 (KERRY UP 2 FROM PREVIOUS POLL)
TIME POLL - Sept. 21-23, 2004
BUSH 49 (BUSH DOWN 5 FROM PREVIOUS POLL)
KERRY 45 (KERRY UP 3 FROM PREVIOUS POLL)
Now for the PEW POLL. It's the only poll showing Bush gaining ground from their previous poll. My argument with PEW is that it's poll is erratic...
LATEST PEW RELEASE
9/22-26/04
BUSH 48
KERRY 40
9/17-21/04
BUSH 45
KERRY 42
Now for this shift of 5% of the electorate to be true, 3 million people would have woke up last week between the 22nd & the 26th, & decided to abandon John Kerry. Look at their earlier release...
PEW POLLS RELEASED 9/16
9/11-14/04
KERRY 46
BUSH 46
9/8-10/04
BUSH 52
KERRY 40
6 million people would have had to change their minds in 3 days. Maybe PEW is right, maybe there wrong. I'm guessing wrong.
THE DEBATES
How are they ours to lose? If these polls are to be believed, Bush already has sizeable lead on the issues of IRAQ & TERRORISM, while cutting into democrats- especially women voters. There is little or no room for Bush's numbers to go, unless Kerry FUCKS UP royally. People expect Bush to win. The ABCNEWS-POST poll shows about 20 percent of the electorate having no opinion on Kerry, Fav or Unfav. The other finding in a lot of these samples is that the public doesn't understand what or think Kerry has detailed plans for problems. That means that if Kerry can disspell the notions about his character & get across to the public his message, there's room for his numbers to move. Most people aren't like us, watching every fluctuation & position paper. People are saying they know what Bush is, but don't know who Kerry is. A lot of people will be turning in thursday, who all they know about Kerry is the Swift Boat ads & the jokes on latenight television.
Also, we aren't fighting for republican votes. We just have to bring home people who've voted our way in the past. Kerry has to close the deal of being a suitable replacement. The Bush message is that Kerry isn't strong enought to protect America. Kerry is going to have 90 minutes on the stage with Bush to compare, since he can't confront Bush, their ideas. If all Kerry does is hold his own, Kerry wins the same way Bush did 4 years ago with Gore.