It is an all-out poll-u-copia today, and not just of the Rasmussen variety. In other words, hunker down for what is a pretty busy Wednesday night for your reading pleasure here at the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
FL-Sen: Meek Way Behind GOP Candidates, According to Ras
The Rasmussen poll this week showing Charlie Crist badly trailing Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary in the Sunshine State has been widely publicized. Getting less ink has been the general election numbers, which were less than positive for Democratic frontrunner Kendrick Meek. Meek gets pounded in the general election no matter whether Crist (48-32) or Rubio (51-31) winds up as the Republican nominee.
GA-Sen: Is Johnny Isakson Potentially Imperiled? Ras Says Maybe
A couple of days after Rasmussen showed Democrat Roy Barnes within striking distance in red-leaning Georgia's high-profile Governor's race, they follow up with a bit of a shock in the low-profile Senate race. They have Johnny Isakson, seen by virtually everyone as safe as could be, only leading a "generic Democrat" by thirteen points (49-36). Of course, "generic Democrat" is not an actual candidate, and there haven't been many whispers of legit Dem candidates eyeing this race.
OH-Sen: New Q-Poll Gives Portman Slight Lead Over Dems
Quinnipiac returns to the Buckeye State, and finds that former GOP Congressman Rob Portman has a modest lead over either Democratic frontrunner. When paired with Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, Portman leads by three points (40-37). Against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, the lead stretches out to five points (40-35). The Q poll also takes a look at the Democratic primary, but "undecided" would be the big winner there, as Fisher sits on a nine-point edge (29-20) over Jennifer Brunner.
NY-Sen: Is Former Bush Advisor Eyeing the Senate Race?
Here is a potentially curious twist to what has already been a campaign cycle full of them in New York: the latest GOP name to surface in regard to Kirsten Gillibrand's seat in the U.S. Senate (which she will be defending this Fall) is Dan Senor. If that name rings a slight bell, you might know it for two reasons. One, he was a fairly high-profile advisor to former President George W. Bush. Two, in media circles, he might be better known as the hubby of CNN anchor Campbell Brown. Remember that it was just last week that NY Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman was also flirting with making this race. It seems that we can take this as a sign that the GOP is not in love with Bruce Blakeman as their standard-bearer.
PA-Sen: Specter Leads Primary, Trails General, In Strange F&M Poll
Franklin and Marshall releases some new nums in the state of Pennsylvania, and the very hot Senate race found in the Keystone State. In the Democratic Primary, the incumbent (Senator Arlen Specter) leads Congressman Joe Sestak, but remains well below 50% support (33-16). In the general election, the numbers get very curious. Among registered voters, the margins were very close, with Specter beating presumptive GOP nominee Pat Toomey by four points (33-29) while Sestak trailed by just three points (25-22). Among the people F&M considered likely voters, however, Toomey has a double-digit lead over both Specter (44-34) and Sestak (38-20). Now, there is usually some gap between registered voters and likely voters, but this strikes me as more than a little absurd.
THE U.S. HOUSE
KS-01: Potential Mod/Con Clash in Open Seat, According to SUSA Poll
SurveyUSA, which is normally an incredibly prolific pollster but has been curiously silent this campaign season (save for a couple of polls contracted for FDL), is back with a primary poll in a fairly low-profile open-seat race in Kansas. There is no question that the winner in West Kansas' 1st district (which went 69% for John McCain in '08) will be a Republican. Therefore, as is often the case in Kansas (see Thomas Frank's book on the subject), the question is what type of Republican wins the nod. According to the poll, the "moderate" Republican has the edge. State senator Jim Barnett has 23% of the vote, leading the CfG/Ron Paul candidate, Tim Huelskamp, who trails slightly with 16% of the vote. The rest of the field is in single digits.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Poll Confirms Whitman Blowout in GOP Primary
Despite the solemn promises from GOP state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner that he is going to "spend it all" in an effort to win the GOP gubernatorial primary, it is looking exceedingly likely that it won't help. Meg Whitman has a commanding lead in a new poll conducted for the Small Business Action Committee. According to the poll, Whitman leads Poizner 60-12. Whitman, it must be said, has been at a saturation level of advertising throughout the coverage of the Winter Olympics, with ads (tragically, the same ad) running several times a day for the past two weeks.
FL-Gov: Sink Continues To Trail By Double-Digits, Says Rasmussen
Rasmussen is the latest pollster to chronicle a race that appears, at least on the surface, to be slipping away from the Dems. Rasmussen has GOP Attorney General Bill McCollum leading Democratic state CFO Alex Sink by thirteen points (48-35). This is in line with other recent polling: the last poll to put Sink within single digits was released in November.
NM-Gov: Denish Holds A Modest Lead in Gov's Race, Says PPP
Democrat Diane Denish is the early frontrunner in the state's open-seat gubernatorial election, according to new numbers out today from PPP. Denish leads the best-known Republican contender in the field, Pete Domenici Jr., by a five-point margin (45-40). Against the rest of the Republican hopefuls, Denish holds double-digit leads. One liability for her potentially is her predecessor. Bill Richardson's number in-state are atrocious: his job approval is a paltry 28%.
OH-Gov: Improving Poll Numbers for a Dem Incumbent (No...Really!)
It's been quite a while since we've been able to cobble that particular headline together, but incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland actually looks to have recovered from a spate of bad polling. The Q poll has Strickland up five points on presumptive GOP nominee John Kasich (44-39). The previous Q poll had the race tied, and other recent polls gave Kasich an edge. One note to defend against "lib-biased poll" accusations: the same poll gave President Obama his weakest approval numbers to date in the Q poll (44/52).
RI-Gov: Brown U. Says Indie Chafee The Early Leader
Brown University, which polls the home state of Rhode Island intermittently, hit the state earlier this month to look at the potentially interesting three-way gubernatorial race in Rhode Island. Against either Dem prospect, Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee leads, with the Dem in second, and Republican John Robataille running third. State treasurer Frank Caprio comes a bit closer (34-28-12) than state Attorney General Patrick Lynch (32-17-13). In the Democratic primary, undecided is the big winner, with Caprio leading Lynch 30-21.
PA-Gov: Undecided Big Winners In Primary Battles
In addition to their Senate polling (covered a little earlier), Franklin and Marshall also looked at the upcoming (May 18) primaries for Governor in the Keystone State. In both cases, a ridiculously small number of voters cited a preference. On the GOP side, it is a massive lead for state AG Tom Corbett, but even he notched just 26% of the vote (state legislator Sam Rohrer lags behind at just 4%). On the Dem side, the lack of attachment was even more apparent, as over 70% of voters did not pick a favorite. Three Democrats (Wagner, Onorato, and Hoeffel) all tied...at a whopping 6% of the vote.
TX-Gov: Dueling Numbers On Next Week's Primary Elections
Depending on whether you buy stock in PPP's numbers or Rasmussen's, Texas Governor Rick Perry may or may not be able avoid a runoff in next week's GOP gubernatorial primary. Ras has Perry on the verge of winning outright on Tuesday, with the incumbent gaining 48% of the vote, to 27% for Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and 16% for teabagger Debra Medina, whose numbers have clearly stalled. Meanwhile, PPP has Perry favored to be forced into a runoff, earning just 40% of the vote to Hutchison's 31% and Medina's 20%. For what it's worth, PPP also says that Perry would easily win a runoff, in any event.
In the general election, Rasmussen contributes some new numbers, and they continue to show near-certain (he has an insurmountable lead in the PPP poll) Democratic nominee Bill White in an extremely competitive position against his likely opponent, Governor Perry. Perry leads White by just six points (47-41), while Hutchison has a slightly bigger lead over White (47-38). Medina's recent flirtation with truther and birther hijinks have cost her dearly in the general election--White now holds a ten point edge (47-37) over Medina in the incredibly rare circumstance that she becomes the nominee.
WI-Gov: GOP Has Early Edge, Says Rasmussen
Rasmussen's numbers in the past two weeks have moderated somewhat in terms of where they sit vis-a-vis other recent polls. On exception would be Wisconsin, where the pollster sees a sizeable edge for Republican Scott Walker over Democrat Tom Barrett (49-40). Rasmussen also says that former GOP Congressman Mark Neumann also leads Tom Barrett (44-42).