The one thing all Republicans seem to agree on is that cutting federal spending will create jobs. We were curious to see if the rest of America agrees, and surprise, surprise, it turns out they don't.
Here's the question we asked in our weekly tracking poll:
Over the next two or three years, do you believe that cutting federal spending will create jobs, eliminate jobs, or make no difference?
| CREATE | ELIMINATE | NO DIFF |
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All | 28% | 46% | 26% |
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Dem | 10% | 66% | 24% |
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Rep | 62% | 15% | 23% |
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Ind | 25% | 46% | 29% |
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Research 2000 for Daily Kos, MoE 2%, Feb. 1-4, 2010
As you can see, it's not even close: only 1 in 10 Democrats and 1 in 4 independents agree with the Republican argument that cutting federal spending will create jobs. In fact, nearly 4 in 10 Republicans disagree.
Overall, nearly half of Americans believe the Republican philosophy of cutting federal spending will actually eliminate jobs.
Nonetheless, as Paul Krugman argued yesterday, political insiders are obsessed with demonstrating 'fiscal discipline.' We saw that manifested in President Obama's State of the Union when he offered his gimmicky spending freeze proposal, which fortunately seems to have receded into the background.
It is true that everything else being equal, it's better to have a balanced budget than a budget deficit, but the mistake people make when obsessing on the deficit in 2010 is that all things aren't equal. Right now, we need to create jobs to sustain the economic growth that will generate the tax revenue that brings the budget back into balance. Cutting federal spending will take us in the opposite direction, eliminating jobs and hurting the economy.
Fortunately, despite the media's nonstop deficit hawk hype, a solid plurality of Americans understand that cutting federal spending is bad for job growth, and only one in four hold the misguided view that cutting spending will create new jobs.
To be clear, this doesn't mean Americans support wasteful government spending. Obviously (almost by definition), they don't. But it's not the spending that they oppose -- it's the waste.
Nonetheless, Republicans and and many political observers seem to think that across-the-board spending cuts are not only good economics, they are good politics. This pull debunks that false point of view, showing that on this as with so many other issues, Republicans find themselves at odds with the American public. The only question is whether Democrats like Evan Bayh will give them political cover, letting the GOP off the hook once again.