Crossposted from BlueArkansasBlog.com
A trio of Arkansas blogs combined to form a sort of "common wisdom" on the race for the US Senate. The essence of the message is that the race currently "leans Lincoln" but that Halter can change that in a hurry.
TalkBusiness.net - Roby Brock
On the Democratic side, incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln still has advantages over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, but they are advantages that Halter could erase.
Those advantages are namely money, name recognition, and a larger campaign. Let's break down each of these "advantages" and we will see that Halter has the momentum.
Money
Halter has made a dent in the money advantage, but only a dent. Lincoln still has around 5 dollars for every dollar the Halter campaign has. The small dollar donations will be very important for the Halter campaign. If they can tap that source repeatedly without drying up the well, they could end up with a much fairer level of parity with the Lincoln campaign. Hopefully, the netroots can help by urging more donations in the future to give Halter a better shot at matching Lincoln's high dollar donors.
Name Recognition
The low name recognition was a problem for the Halter campaign at first, but it was also a great opportunity. This allowed them to define Halter positively before the opponents had a chance to attack him and drive up his negatives. The Halter campaign has seized on this opportunity in the right way by using the money he has received thus far on media buys such as the television ads where he talks about issues that are important to Arkansans and introductory ads, such as the one with his High School football coach. As his name recognition increases, so will his numbers against Lincoln. While others may view this as an advantage for Lincoln, I have long viewed this as an advantage for Halter. People have already made up their minds about Lincoln and that is a bad thing for her.
TolbertReport.com (Conservative blog)
So far, Halter has run a smart campaign with his outsider, "man of the people" strategy that has worked well for him in past. We did rate this race "Leans Lincoln" but as it develops, I believe Halter has a realistic chance of pulling off an upset victory.
It is interesting that the very attack levied at Halter from the Lincoln campaign is actually a positive for Arkansas voters. He is an outsider. Not the one the Lincoln campaign tries to make him out to be (a non-Arkansan), but a Washington-outsider. The very thing the Lincoln campaign wants us to believe Lincoln is. This is not an easy sell.
TalkBusiness.net - Roby Brock
She is attempting to separate herself from the Washington, D.C. establishment, a tricky juggling act for a two-term incumbent and former member of Congress.
Large Campaign
The Lincoln campaign has the advantage of having that two-term incumbency to fill out a large campaign staff with plenty of money to fund it. This will be the hardest thing for the Halter campaign to overcome. The Halter campaign is made up of only a few staffers. Halter's best chance to counter this is a strong grass roots effort on the ground to show support combined with a positive media campaign. Halter's facebook fan page has eclipsed Lincoln's facebook fan page in just two weeks, showing that the support is out there. How involved are Arkansans and others from around the country willing to get to insure a Halter victory? Support from groups like the AFL-CIO and the SEIU could also be very important here.
In short, Halter has a great chance, but he needs the help of his supporters. As for Lincoln...
BlakesThinkTank.com
The Democratic primary leans towards incumbent US Sen. Blanche Lincoln, although her support is dwindling by the hour.
While Lincoln may have some advantages, the momentum is all Halter's.
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