It's going to get hairy here the next few days, but with the reconciliation language decided upon, the votes are starting to shake out. As of this morning, John Boccieri from Ohio is a yes.
He joins Betsy Markey of Colorado and Bart Gordon from Tennessee in saying they will vote aye, as will Eliot Engel, as pretty much expected.
Travis Childers and Stephen Lynch are still in the "no" camp, though Lynch's opposition comes from the conviction that the bill isn't strong enough and could potentially be swayed, along with Michael Arcuri, who is now targeted by SEIU if he votes no.
Stupak is still bleating about finding a compromise that will get his vote. One suspects that Stupak is continuing to enjoy the tv cameras.
Where does that leave us? David Dayen continues to have the most exhaustive and careful count with the Boccieri, he pegs it at 194 yes, 208 no.
Definite YES:
193 Democrats, including 3 who voted No last time, in November (Dennis Kucinich, Bart Gordon, Betsy Markey).
Definite NO:
177 Republicans
Definite NO:
31 Democrats.
24 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow, Travis Childers.
7 Democrats who voted Yes in November ("S" for confirmed Stupak bloc):
Stephen Lynch, Mike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).
11 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:
5 lean Yes:
John Tanner, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Scott Murphy.
5 undecided:
Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire, Allen Boyd.
1 lean No:
Glenn Nye.
20 potential Yes-No flip votes:
5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Brad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur, Joseph Cao.
5 lean Yes:
Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.
9 other undecided Democrats:
Zack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean, Mike Michaud.
3 lean No:
Marion Berry, Joseph Cao.
Democrats need 23 of a combination of the 11 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 23 out of the remaining uncommitted 31. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 13 of the last 17 uncommitted.
Stay tuned. There will probably be a lot of firming up among these undecideds today.
Update: And just like that, TPM is reporting Kaptur now leaning yes, and Chris Murphy a definite yes.