A number of reports are confirming what Chuck Todd said a few minutes ago on MSNBC, that Stupak is a yes. If true, they've got their votes.
They've got their votes provided that the agreed upon executive order language doesn't go so far as to lose pro-choice caucus votes. So far we have not seen the language or a statement from any of the pro-choice caucus reps.
More to come on this.
Update: A reporter for The Hill tweets that Pelosi and top Dems haven't confirmed the deal.
And Brian Baird is now a "yes." If they can swing enough, can they blow off Stupak?
Update 2: And this is why you can't believe every report. CNN's Evan Glass tweets:
Stupak: "I'm still a no // There is no deal yet. Its a work in progress. Maybe we'll get there today."
I think they're going after every other vote they can possibly wring out, even GOP member Cao (who Obama apparently called) to avoid Stupak.
Update 3: Dday has the supposed exec order language--this is a supposed leak to NRO, so grain of salt. But what's in it--other than extending Hyde to make sure that it also covers community health clinics (read Planned Parenthood for the purposes of Stupak) isn't too egregious, and I agree with dday, does not go as far as codifying Hyde--it would still need to be reupped every year.
Which is probably why Stupak still isn't a yes. He's probably pushing for more.
Update 4: Tanner a no. Giffords a yes.
Update 5: Lincoln Davis a no.
And House Rs are jerks, as the House goes through a number of resolutions that are intended to keep people around and on the floor, where leadership and their colleagues can buttonhole the few undecideds and whip them.