Sadly, our MSM is so cowed we must look
across the pond for such incisive analysis of the state of Bush.
Beset on all sides by the bloodshed in Iraq, rebellions in the Republican party and Democrat attacks on his domestic agenda, Bush faces the derailment of his second term only six months after his inauguration.
It is a remarkable turnaround. After his 2004 victory, Republican advisers spoke of a 'Bush unshackled', freed by the fact he will not fight another election and buoyed by winning 12 million new voters to his cause. Bush boasted of spending 'political capital' in a radical second term to transform America.
No longer. Bush is confronting the nightmare of any American President in his second term: he is becoming a lame duck.
the dishonesty of the chattering classes is so extreme it is almost shocking. One one hand we have Milbank's snarky
Conyers bash, but the reality-based media spake thus:
At the centre of Bush's troubles is the Iraq war. Nightly images of mayhem in Baghdad have pushed the jubilant scenes of the Iraqi elections to the back of America's consciousness. For the first time, more now oppose than support the war. Even some Republicans are talking about withdrawal. The ghost of Vietnam stalks Washington's corridors of power.
But Bush's troubles go deeper. His relentless plans to sell social security reform to the public have floundered. His energy bill is mired in trouble. Democrats have blocked the nomination of the radical John Bolton as UN ambassador. Once disciplined Republican senators and congressmen snipe at the White House on everything from the environment to stem cell research. 'It's an old rule of thumb: the power of a second-term President peaks on the day after he wins the election. It's all downhill from there,' said Larry Haas, a former Clinton White House aide.
...
The polls are brutal. A survey by Gallup last week said 59 per cent of Americans now favoured US withdrawal. Polls by Pew and Zogby International also revealed that a clear majority of Americans believed they were on the wrong track in Iraq. Bush's approval ratings collapsed to 44 per cent in general and a paltry 39 per cent on Iraq. 'Iraq is at the front of Bush's troubles. Things are not going well and the American voting public sees that,' said John Zogby, head of the pollsters Zogby.
The talk in Washington is of the dreaded 'tipping point'. This is when Iraq's insurgency deepens into uncontrollable crisis at the same time as American public opinion collapses. That could spell the unthinkable: American defeat.
'[Bush's] place in history will probably rest on Iraq becoming a stable democracy. Not too many historians, presidential watchers or political science professors believe that is a good bet,' said John Orman, who is professor of politics at Fairfield University in Connecticut.
...
Democrats and Republicans know that a Supreme Court nomination is looming. Lifted by their Bolton success, Democrats are hungry for that fight.
Last Thursday, however, Iraq was far from Bush's mind. He was on the stump in Silver Springs, Maryland, a slice of suburbia not far from Washington. In a nominally public meeting at a local high school, Bush touted his plans to reshape social security, the system of payments many elderly Americans rely on.
His speech on Thursday was his 34th on the issue in a campaign that has seen him visit 27 states. So far it has been to no avail. As hundreds of carefully selected Republicans queued to enter the school, they were outnumbered by 500 protesters. Their drums and shouts drowned out every other noise. That was no surprise. The social security campaign has been a disaster for Bush. The more he has travelled, the more public approval of his handling of the issue has collapsed. A survey for the New York Times put it at just 25 per cent.
Bush is starting to sound desperate. 'You've got a good idea, step up with it,' he told his Maryland audience. 'I'm more than willing to listen.' For a politician famed for his direct style, such comments feel more like Clinton's 'I feel your pain' campaigning than hard-nosed conservatism.
But social security is just one of several cherished projects that have hit the skids. Plans to reform the tax system have been delayed until the end of September. Bush's energy bill is stalled. He is facing huge criticism on environment and climate change, where concerns span party lines. On issues from global warming to evolution, Bush's hardline denials look increasingly out of touch.
...
Americans are most concerned about rising petrol prices, a possible housing market crash and job creation: issues that Bush rarely touches. 'Bush's second-term agenda has been very strange. He is not talk ing about anything America cares about,' said Zogby. Not only does Bush appear out of touch with voters; he is out of touch with his party's needs.
That may explain why senior Republicans in the Senate were summoned to the White House last week for a 'policy luncheon' with Bush. It is the first time such a meeting has been held since the Reagan administration. 8One senate aide said Bush presented the politicians with a 'shopping list' of issues he expected action on.*
But such brow-beating may be in vain. The interests of the White House and the Republican party have diverged. Bush and Dick Cheney are still radicals, concerned with leading a conservative revolution that transforms America. But Republicans troops just want to win the next election, and voters seem to favour a more moderate stance. 'The President has decided that his legacy is more important to him than popularity. But you cannot get the legacy without the people behind you,' Haas said.
History may just be on the move again - leaving Bush behind.
Or perhaps freedom is just on the march-freedom from Bushco. Or as Robert Byrd said, "Mr. President, It's not leadership if nobody is following."