The only riddle asks: If a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound? And what about if a massive chunk of a mountain glacier breaks off, crashes into a lake, and causes a 75-foot tsunami that kills 1, injures scores more, and destroys 50 homes and the water treatment plant for a town of 60,000? There was plenty of sound, but few outside the region seemed to notice. That silence is deafening and troubling.
Around here, unenergy had a nice diary on the event that attracted too little attention. Thankfully, RLMiller just posted a nice diary ahead of me. The story needs more attention for many reasons, not the least of which being the larger story of glacier loss in the Andes due to climate change.
The tsunami in the Peruvian lake
The brief story was picked up Reuters, but buried on their pages.
(Reuters) - A huge glacier broke off and plunged into a lake in Peru, causing a 75-foot (23-meter) tsunami wave that swept away at least three people and destroyed a water processing plant serving 60,000 local residents, government officials said on Monday.
Reuters (April 12, 2010)
The story indicates that the chunk of ice that broke off the Hualcan glacier and plunged hundreds of feet into the lake measured 1,640 feet by 656 feet. That is larger than the Sears Tower (now Willis Tower) in Chicago.
This video provides footage shot from helicopter of the glacier and a few glimpses on the damage to the water treatment plant.
Peruvian glacier triggers Andes tsunami
Uploaded by itnnews.
Two of the presumed missing have been found alive, reducing the death toll to 1. The miracle is that more lives were not lost.
It is surprising that Fox did cover the story (or more accurately Murdoch property Sky News covered it). It went to great lengths to suggest that ice breakage in this area is more often due to earthquakes. Perhaps ice breakage is less frequently the result of climate change, but ice loss certainly is.
Initially, six people were reported missing, feared dead under the debris -- but local governor Cesar Alvarez has said five of those have been found alive. Authorities evacuated mountain valleys, fearing more ice breakage after the tsunami, which are most commonly caused by earthquakes.
Blaming climate change, Mr Alvarez said: "Because of global warming the glaciers are going to detach and fall on these overflowing lakes. This is what happened."
NASA has been watching this area for 7 years - see photos and story here.
Data from NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (Aster) is assisting Peruvian government officials and geologists in monitoring a glacier that feeds Lake Palcacocha, located high above the city of Huaraz, 270 kilometers (168 miles) north of Lima. An ominous crack has developed in the glacier. Should the large glacier chunk break off and fall into the lake, the ensuing flood could hurtle down the Cojup Valley into the Rio Santa Valley below, reaching Huaraz, population 60,000, in less than 15 minutes.
The larger story is climate change and loss of water resources for an entire region. Perhaps that is why this story received little attention.
Climate and economic change in the Andes
Climate change "skeptics" made a big deal about projections related to the Himalayan glaciers. Those projections were based on limited data. However, the documentation of glacial loss for the Andes glaciers is extensive and the worst case scenarios are beginning to unfold.
Here is a look at the loss of glacial mass from the Santa Rosa glacier, one of most extensively studied in the Cordillera Blanca region.
Here is a look at changes in another major Peruvian glacier over the past decade.
Picture source: Peruvian Times
Time also has an interesting pictorial series available here.
Glaciers in the Andes have been rapidly melting, with nearly a quarter of the mass lost in during the past four decades. The disappearance of the glaciers, expected to reach a critical stage over the next 20 years, will bring upheaval to the region for two reasons. Approximately 70% of the region's fresh water supplies comes from glacial water and 80% of Peru's electricity is generated from hydroelectric sources.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a 1999 report based on measurements taken between 1966 and 1988. The report contains the following ironic comment:
The contribution of glacier meltwater to streams in the river basins has been very important (Fliri, 1980). It is probable that the importance of the glacier meltwater will diminish as the glacier decreases in size, as was observed in the French and Swiss Alps from 1940 to 1950.
Instead of decreasing in importance, the World Bank argues the glacial water will become more important in the near future. Unless alternative water supplies and energy supplies are quickly developed, economic and political chaos will ensue.
Glacier Retreat and Economic Impact
One of the important functions of glaciers is the capacity to regulate water supply through runoffs during dry and warmer period while storing water in the form of ice during wet and colder periods. As glaciers retreat, this water regulation function will be affected and eventually lost. The area of this impact covers the entire range of the tropical Andes, home to over 30 million people and host to the vital global biodiversity. As a result, changes in water supply will have adverse effects for mountain communities, agriculture, and ecosystem integrity. Vergara says “water runoff in the glaciated basin that feeds El Alto has diminished as glaciers have retreated and water supply is now just about enough to meet demand during dry season.”
Impact on water supply to Andean cities
Rapid change in water supply will put both the human population and the food supply at risk, and higher water costs can ultimately impair the ability of these cities to maintain vibrant local economies. Large cities in the region are depending on glacial runoffs for their water supply. Ecuador's Quito draws 50 percent of its water supply from the glacial basin, and Bolivia’s La Paz, 30 percent. The volume of the lost glacier surface of Peru is equivalent to 7,000 million cubic meters of water that is about 10 years of water supply for Lima.
Impact on agriculture
Reduced water supplies during the dry season and an extended dry season have adverse effects on agriculture, as the people of the Pecarumi community are already experiencing.
Impact on energy
Most countries in the Andes are dependent on hydroelectric power generation: Bolivia 50 percent, Colombia 73 percent, Ecuador 72 percent, and Peru 81 percent. This contribution will be diminished in areas where water basins are glacier dependent.
Economic consequences
The impact of Andean glacier retreat on the local economy is formidable. For example in Peru, the annual incremental cost to the power sector is estimated at US$1.5 billion (should rationing be allowed to occur), or US$212 million (if a gradual adaptation scenario is implemented).
World Bank, 2008
Thanks to the Peru Trade Promotion Agreement, Peru is experiencing record economic growth, but most of that has come from opening the country to multinational companies for resource exploitation.
The resulting decrees include moves to privatize water and allow private investment in other sectors. The most controversial decree relates to forestry. Indigenous organizations warn that this ruling effectively opens up 45 million hectares to foreign investment and timber, oil, and mining exploitation.
As noted by the U.S. State Department, much of the foreign investment is concentrated in oil and gas, telecommunications, mining, manufacturing, finance, and electricity. Resource extraction is not a viable long-term economic strategy, particularly in the face of climate change. Just ask the people of Kentucky and West Virginia. It is ironic that Peruvian President Alan Garcia was elected in 2006 using the promise of "clean water for all."