We're a little over a month from the Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Pennsylvania and other than the most recent poll from Rasmussen, every recent survey has shown Sen. Arlen Specter with a sizable lead over his primary opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak.
Despite Specter's lead, I wouldn't count Sestak out -- and this video from last August in which Arlen Specter defends his support for John McCain and Sarah Palin explains why (transcript):
Since switching to the Democratic Party, Arlen Specter has had a decent voting record, but that voting record is more a product of political expediency than of principled beliefs. This is the same Arlen Specter who felt comfortable putting Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the presidency 18 short months ago.
Specter tried to explain his support for McCain and Palin to Chris Matthews last August. "I thought that they were the better choice," he said. "I was trying to work within the Republican Party and trying to bring moderation to the Republican Party."
Seriously? "Trying to bring moderation to the Republican Party"? How much moderation could Specter really have been trying to bring to the Republican Party if he campaigned alongside Sarah "Pals around with terrorists" Palin?
That argument won't play well among Democrats, almost all of whom believe that anyone who endorsed Sarah Palin's vice presidential candidacy showed stunningly bad judgment.
Specter is clearly aware of this, downplaying his support by saying "I didn’t exactly think my vote would be decisive." That's revisionist history, though. When Specter stumped in Media, Pennsylvania for McCain and Palin on September 22, the five most recent polls of the state showed a close race, with the Obama-Biden ticket leading by an average of just 2 points. They ended up winning by 10 points, but when Specter hit the trail, McCain and Palin still had a shot at winning.
I don't vote in Pennsylvania (though I went to high school there), but I can't imagine casting a Democratic primary vote for someone who endorsed Sarah Palin -- and I suspect there's a lot of Democrats like me. It would be one thing if there were no alternative to Specter, but there is: Joe Sestak, a current U.S. Congressman and a former Navy Admiral.
Sestak clearly understands Specter's vulnerability. On Sunday, the Philadelphia Inquirer summed up Sestak's primary message in a eleven simple words:
His core message: I'm a real Democrat; Specter is not. You can't trust him.
At the very least, that message should raise doubts in the minds of Democratic primary voters. How many Pennsylvania Democrats are going to want a choice next November between two candidates who were willing to put Sarah Palin in the White House? If Sestak can position himself as a viable alternative to Arlen Specter, Specter will be in real trouble.
On Tuesday, Chris Cilizza questioned the conventional wisdom that Arlen Specter has locked the primary up, pointing out that Sestak has intentionally chosen to run a "truncated" campaign, and that Sestak's political consultants are known for successfully holding their fire until the very end of campaigns, when it matters most.
Cilizza still gives the edge to Specter, but as he says, "declarations that the race is over are off the mark. Expect a barn-burner in the final month." Indeed. It should be a very interesting race, and nobody should count Joe Sestak out.