I'd heard that scenarios exist where Kerry can win without FL or OH -- but I needed to see it for myself.
Not only does this path to victory seem possible. It seems somewhat likely.
Pardon me if I'm just rehashing someone else's calculations -- a definite possibility in such a vibrant community.
This scenario assumes two things will happen that are unclear right now:
- Colordao will split its electoral votes
- Kerry will win WI
Beyond that I don't see a glaring weakness in this path to victory. Here are the states, broken down into STRONG and LIKELY:
STRONG - 217 electoral votes
CA, OR, WA, MN, MI, IL, NY, RI, MA, ME, NJ, CT, VT, DC, DE, MD, HI
LIKELY - 42 electoral votes
NV, NM, NH, IA, PA
HOPEFUL
WI - 10 electoral votes.
Kerry is shown even or ahead (and Bush at a high of 48%) in all LIKELY states in recent polls. If undecideds break in a predictable fashion (or the GOTV works) then Kerry is safe. WI has seen Bush poll at 49-50% recently which is why it's a true battleground in my mind.
The total EV for the above states is 269 electoral votes.
If CO votes to split its electoral votes Kerry will, even if he loses, get 273 electoral votes. 3 more than he needs to win. Last I heard it is likely CO will vote to split the EVs.
There you have it. OH and FL can go to Bush and Kerry can still win.