The week kicks off with some above average polling news for Dems in a couple of key races (including one, of all places, from the House of Ras). Add a dash of other campaign news, and you have the Monday edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
IN-Sen: Endorsements Fly In Final Weeks of GOP Primary
Some of the folks that pass for luminaries in the national GOP have picked their horses in next month's Senate primary in Indiana. If you are a Paul-ite, then your man is apparently former Congressman John Hostettler, who earned the endorsement of the Texas Congressman and two-time Presidential aspirant. Meanwhile, if you are a Focus on the Family type, then James Dobson would like you to know that former Senator Dan Coats is his preference. While Dobson no longer heads the evangelical political group, he still holds some serious sway with that crowd. Not to be outdone, state Senator Marlin Stutzman got into the endorsement game as well, touting an endorsement from former American Conservatives Union president David Keene.
NY-Sen: Gillibrand Leads Declared GOPers by Nearly 2-to-1
If you are a GOP partisan, you choose the following headline the most recent incarnation of the Siena Poll: "Gillibrand Under 50% Against GOP Field." The problem for the GOP? Their guys are all below 30%, with the sole exception of George Pataki, who announced last week that he is a no-go. Former Congressman Joe DioGuardi comes the closest, but still trails Senator Kirsten Gillibrand by nineteen points (46-27). David Malpass (46-24) and Bruce Blakeman (46-26) do marginally worse. In a Pataki-less GOP primary, undecided is the big winner, as a majority of GOP voters don't have a favorite. Of those who do, however, DioGuardi has a huge lead, with 24% of the vote (both Malpass and Blakeman are stuck in single digits).
NC-Sen: Union Schism Adds to Intrigue In Tight Democratic Primary
Given the essential role that organized labor plays in Democratic politics, this kind of a story is pretty darned intriguing. Today, the Charlotte local of the Teamsters Union endorsed a different candidate than the statewide Teamsters Union, backing Elaine Marshall. The state union had endorsed Cal Cunningham. The Charlotte local seemed ill at ease about some conflicting comments from Cunningham regarding card check. The state union, meanwhile, showed no such apprehension, and made clear on Monday that they are standing with Cunningham. Cunningham and Marshall have emerged as the lead pack (along with attorney Kenneth Lewis) in next month's Democratic primary to take on vulnerable GOP incumbent Richard Burr.
THE U.S. HOUSE
FL-10: Dean of Florida Delegation Potentially Vulnerable?
A poll taken earlier this month by Anzalone-Liszt Research seems to hint that longtime GOP incumbent Bill Young might be vulnerable to a Democratic challenge this year. The poll has Young leading Democrat Charlie Justice by a 49-34 margin, but the polling memo points out that Justice does particularly well among the relatively small amount of voters who actually know him. (hat tip: DC's Political Report)
NY-24: Arcuri Holds 2010 Cards Close to Vest
This could easily wind up being much ado about nothing, but it is worth noting that, over the weekend, when pressed on the issue, two-term Democratic Rep. Michael Arcuri would not make a flat declaration that he was running for re-election later this year. Arcuri's vote against the HIR bill royally ticked off the base, and there was even a lot of talk about the Working Families Party (a key element in close NY elections, as DavidNYC noted last month) might field an alternative candidate. Arcuri finds himself in a "no man's land" of his own making, with base Democrats dismayed about a vote that earned him absolutely zero respite from GOP attacks. The GOP is running the same candidate (Richard Hanna) who came fairly close to knocking Arcuri off in 2008.
PA-12: Dem Nominee Makes Clear Conserva-Dem Bonafides In New Ad
Someday, Democrats in marginal districts will learn that "me, too" is not a winning strategy. Yet such is the clear strategy of Mark Critz, the appointed Democratic nominee in next month's special election to replace Democrat John Murtha in this swing district in southwestern Pennsylvania. In a new ad, he states that "I opposed the health care bill. And I’m pro-life, and pro-gun." Which, one presumes, is the same stance as Republican nominee Tim Burns. One can only presume the percentage of Democrats who will stay home and do laundry on May 18th just went up to some extent.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
FL-Gov: Last Week's Q Poll Also Had Close Guv's Race
Last week's polling by Quinnipiac got a lot of attention, because it had Marco Rubio up on Kendrick Meek by just four points. The same poll had numbers on the gubernatorial election, and had an equally (and surprisingly) close result. The Q Poll had longtime GOP frontrunner Bill McCollum up just four points (40-36) on Democrat Alex Sink. The poll did not test GOP newcomer Rick Scott, who entered the race after the polling window closed.
MA-Gov: GOP Candidate Runs Third, According to New Poll
A new poll of the three-way gubernatorial battle in the Bay State, released over the weekend by Western New England College, becomes among the first to show newly-minted Republican nominee Charlie Baker as the third-place candidate in the race. Incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick, still the beneficiary of split opposition, leads the field with just 34% of the vote. Former Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill now runs second, with 29% of the vote. Narrowly behind Cahill is Baker, who has 27% of the vote. In other Mass-Gov news, we now are assured that Baker will be the GOP nominee, after he crushed Christy Mihos in the state GOP convention, garnering 89% of the convention vote.
NY-Gov: It's Still Cuomo By A Mile, According to Siena Poll
Andrew Cuomo is still a runaway favorite to be the next Governor of New York, according to the latest edition of the Siena Poll. Cuomo's closest race against recent party switcher Steve Levy, but Cuomo still blasts him by thirty-five points (58-23). Against Rick Lazio (61-24) and Carl Paladino (64-19), Cuomo fares even better. In the pending primary election, it is still Rick Lazio up front, and by double digits. Bear in mind, though, that there is still a ton of undecided voters (Lazio leads Levy 29-15, with Paladino at 13%).
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
The Monday edition of the Ras-a-Palooza is usually the smallest one (after all, the prolific pollster rarely posts new stuff on Saturday night or Sunday). This is no exception, although they do post somewhat of a "Stop the Presses" headline out of the Lone Star State: where Rick White is close to getting knocked off by Democrat Bill White. Meanwhile, in their only other poll released today, they hold form in Indiana, where Republicans are up big (!).
IN-Sen: Dan Coats (R) 54%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 33%
IN-Sen: John Hostettler (R) 50%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 33%
IN-Sen: Marlin Stutzman (R) 41%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 36%
TX-Gov: Gov. Rick Perry (R) 48%, Bill White (D) 44%