Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/19/2010-4/22/2010. Registered Voters. MoE 2.8% (Last week's results in parentheses):
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE |
---|
PRESIDENT OBAMA | 54 (53) | 41 (42) | +2 |
| | | |
PELOSI: | 38 (39) | 51 (52) | 0 |
REID: | 27 (28) | 60 (62) | +1 |
McCONNELL: | 25 (24) | 60 (61) | +2 |
BOEHNER: | 23 (21) | 59 (60) | +3 |
| | | |
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: | 37 (38) | 58 (57) | -2 |
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: | 23 (21) | 67 (68) | +3 |
| | | |
DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 40 (39) | 54 (54) | +1 |
REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 32 (31) | 64 (65) | +2 |
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
After a period marked, more often than not, by wide week-to-week changes among the parties, a relative calm settles in on the political scene this week.
With the exception of Congressional Democrats (who continue to give back gains made in the immediate wake of the HIR vote), everyone either holds steady or gains 1-3 points. If you really want to overparse numbers, the GOP had slightly bigger gains, but when you are talking about one point differences in most cases, it's hard to glean much from that.
On balance, the lack of disparity between the parties this week has to be seen as a disappointment for the Democrats. Last week's tracking poll, as you might recall, was the best week for Republicans since the August recess period, which was a real boom period for the GOP.
Last week, I speculated as to whether or not this was a "teabagger bounce", a reaction to the incessant (and, in some cases, pretty fawning) coverage of the tax protests that inevitably accompany the 15th of April. In the short term, at least, that doesn't seem to have happened. The GOP's numbers held, and even incrementally improved.
If there is any ray of light for Democrats in these numbers, it is that a couple of key indicators did not get any worse, and one of them got marginally better.
The right track/wrong track indicator crept back towards 40% this week, which is key to the majority party's health more often than not. This may well be a stat to watch in the next few weeks. If it creeps to, and then past, the 40% plateau, the Democrats might be the beneficiaries of a more contented electorate. However, with the RT/WT going from 38% to 39%, it is equally likely that this is just float.
Meanwhile, the generic ballot and the voter intensity numbers held steady this week. Republicans still enjoy a one point edge (47-46) on the generic ballot, and an eight point edge (69-61) in the ratio of partisans who consider themselves either likely or certain to vote.