Is the economy recovering? While it's too early to see much of a political effect, polls are beginning to pick up signs of economic optimism among the general public.
For example, this new poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (.pdf, for Citizen Opinion) shows signs of improvement in economic attitude (click to see bigger graph)
However, there's not much of this that's reflecting on Democrats just yet. On the one hand, there's some improvement over whether Obama cares more about you and me, or Wall Street.
On the other, the Administration needs to do a whole lot of explaining about how what they did actually helped avert a bigger crisis. Someone other than Tim Gaithner needs to be the lead person.
The above graph shows that, as of now, Obama is blamed for failing to end the recession rather than given credit for averting a bigger crisis. That is subject to change, of course. This graph from Gallup, a job creation index graph, shows improvement:
Gallup estimates that more than 1.5 million Americans who were underemployed became employed to full capacity over the last month. Gallup's 30-day average underemployment measure (not seasonally adjusted) declined to 19.2% on April 18 -- a sharp improvement from the 20.2% reported on March 21 -- and essentially matching its best level of the year.
A different graph, this one from the Conference Board, looks at leading economic indicators:
The incipient recovery is gaining steam, but is still fragile and still can be derailed. Other incipient recovery good news items: housing sales (New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years) and durable goods orders:
New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods excluding transportation last month posted their largest gain in more than two years and new home sales hit an eight-month high, suggesting the economic recovery was gathering momentum.
Another graph from GQR shows the political state of play, with the perils for Democrats tied to the economy and clearly outlined. This is one of those 'if the election were held today' factors that makes it clear it's a good thing the elections are NOT being held today:
While patience with the Administration is running short, economic improvement does seem to be sinking in. For those expecting that recovery in the economy will also mean recovery in Democratic fortunes, it may be time to put that theory to the test. The Wall Street financial regulation drive will help. But unless the Administration does a better job of explaining what they've done - and why it's important - it won't be automatic that Dems will benefit.
Still, it's good to see signs of a turn-around. The country needs it, and btw, if they want to be re-elected, so do Democrats.