A pair of potentially explosive developments could shake up the Florida Senate race, while Rasmussen unloads a mountain of data in a 48-hour span (most of it, shockingly, bad for Democrats). The campaign trail continues to heat up, and the Wrap has the choicest cuts from a spirited two-day festival of political entertainment.
THE U.S. SENATE
AZ-Sen: Could This Be The Sleeper Race of 2010?
A new poll out today from PPP puts Arizona front-and-center as a potentially intriguing race in 2010. The pollsters, which also polled the primary (and will release those results tomorrow), have little-known Democrat Rodney Glassman leading GOP insurgent candidate J.D. Hayworth by a three-point margin (42-39), despite Hayworth having a towering name recognition edge over Glassman. Glassman also, quite surprisingly, holds John McCain under 50% of the vote, as well (49-33). McCain's numbers have plummeted in the state, according to PPP. They have his approval down to just 34%, with a majority of Arizona voters (55%) disapproving of the 2008 GOP presidential nominee.
In the name of contrary data, it is worth reporting that the Rocky Mountain Poll was also released today, and that survey finds McCain in a much more secure position in the primary than most other pollsters. They have McCain leading Hayworth by a two-to-one margin (54-26).
FL-Sen: Race About to Be Shaken Up (Twice?) In Sunshine State
In a week where it is now all but a foregone conclusion that Charlie Crist will bolt the GOP tomorrow (leading to a curious silence from the Republican he appointed to the Senate), there is also some potential fireworks on the Democratic side, as well. Billionaire Jeff Greene is on the brink of jumping into the U.S. Senate race. Greene's business background (he made his fortune during the collapse of the housing market) has Democrats on edge, and might lead them to circle the wagons around Congressman Kendrick Meek. Greene, for his part, knows how to hire expensive Democratic talent: Politico reports that Joe Trippi and Doug Schoen are advising him.
LA-Sen: Dems Sharpen Attacks on Vitter in Bold New Project
David Vitter's embarrassing past might be about to catch up to him in a big way. In a bold move that is sure to draw eyeballs, the Louisiana Democratic Party is putting Vitter's personal travails front-and-center with a new internet campaign called Forgotten Crimes. Of the (accurate) opinion that the media largely let Vitter off the hook for his improprieties, the Louisiana Dems are about to shine a bright light on the scandal. It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, this has on the Vitter-Melancon matchup.
OH-Sen: Quinnipiac Says Fisher Pulling Away At the Last
With the competitive U.S. Senate primary in the Buckeye State now just a week away, a new poll hints that state Lt. Governor Lee Fisher is beginning to put some distance between himself and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. The new Q poll has Fisher leading Brunner by a 41-24 margin. About a month ago, the margin was just seven points (33-26). Fisher has a sizeable fundraising edge, as well, which will make it harder to close the gap at the last.
PA-Sen: Specter Touts High-Horsepower Surrogrates in Primary
Longtime Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter is relying on celebrity, both in the political and the non-political arena, as he heads into his primary against Joe Sestak on May 18th. President Obama lent some support to Specter earlier in the week via his email list. He also got actor Michael J. Fox to cut an ad for him, extolling Specter for his support of scientific research. Specter did himself slight harm today, though, with a clumsy statement that made it appear that he regretted switching parties. Apparently, in context, he was saying that his presence in the GOP might have broken down some of their obstinance. Expect the Sestak campaign to leap onto this one, as Specter's insufficient loyalty to the Democratic Party has already been a key cog in the Sestak rationale for his candidacy.
UT-Sen: Bennett Gets A Unique Endorsement In Tight Senate Race
Facing a raft of Republican challengers and increasingly steep odds against his re-election, longtime Republican Senator Bob Bennett got an exceptionally intriguing endorsement: that of former Utah resident Karl Rove. Rove endorsed the incumbent today. Polls show it is growing progressively less likely that Bennett will survive the state GOP convention.
RACE FOR THE SENATE: Intriguing Online Contest Marks May Primaries
Came by this yesterday and thought it was worth a few words on the Wrap: Howie Klein (of Blue America) has an interesting competition afoot, based on the series of Democratic primaries popping off in the next month. Klein is a supporter of five Democrats facing off in May primaries (two of whom, Jack Conway and Bill Halter, are on our Orange to Blue 2010 list, as well).
He is encouraging donations via ActBlue for those five candidates. The candidate that receives the most contributors (not the most money, but the most contributors) will receive a unique gift, which the campaign can do with as they please (an RIAA multi-platinum award). As of this moment, Conway has an eleven-vote edge over Ohio's Jennifer Brunner, although just 23 votes separates first from last.
THE U.S. HOUSE
PA-15: Dent Holds Modest Lead Over Callahan In Early Public Poll
A rare early-season public poll of a competitive House race looks somewhat promising for Democrats in a GOP-held district. The poll, done for the Allentown Morning Call, has Republican Rep. Charlie Dent leading Bethlehem's Democratic Mayor, John Callahan, by just a 43-31 margin. An encouraging sign for the challenger: Callahan is far less well-known, sporting a 43/13 favorability spread (Dent sits at 53/29). More encouraging: this swing district has a surprisingly affirmative view of the President, who sports a 55% favorability rating in-district.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AZ-Gov: New PPP Poll Sees Racial Shift in Gov Race Post-Bill
The new and controversial immigration law in Arizona is clearly having an impact on the gubernatorial race in that state, according to a new poll by PPP. As Markos alluded to yesterday, Terry Goddard holds a lead over Arizona Governor Jan Brewer by just three points (47-44). Goddard's lead among Hispanic voters has exploded, but Brewer has pulled to a palpable lead among white voters, clearly marking the racial divide on the reaction to this bill. Worth noting: if Brewer does not survive the Republican primary (although her actions on this bill probably cemented the nomination), the Dems are in fairly solid shape. Goddard also holds leads over Joe Arpaio (47-44), Buz Mills (45-37), Dean Martin (47-36), and John Munger (46-31). While Rasmussen (see below) has Brewer surging to 50%+ job approval ratings as a result of her signature on the bill, PPP is more dubious--they have her job approval at 35%.
NV-Gov: Front Group Giving Sandoval A Sweat On Immigration Issue
A couple of weeks back in the Wrap, I alluded to a Democratic group out of Nevada that was attacking Brian Sandoval...from the right...in the hopes of propping up Sandoval's less formidable GOP primary foe, incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons. That group is back at it, hammering Sandoval on a topical issue: immigration. The group is pointing out that while Sandoval is pandering to the right on the AZ immigration law, he once sang a far different tune.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
The last 48 hours have been pretty darned prolific, even by Rasmussen's elevated standards. Not surprisingly, pretty much every data point is favorable for the Republicans, including a clearly rush-job poll to tell the world that everyone in Arizona just LOVES their governor, now that she has signed the Arizona immigration bill. One interesting data point: Bill Halter is clearly more electable than Senator Blanche Lincoln right now, who is apparently toxic in-state right now. Halter runs anywhere from 3-14 points closer to the GOP field than does Lincoln.
AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 48%, Terry Goddard (D) 40%
AR-Sen: John Boozman (R) 57%, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 29%
AR-Sen: Jim Holt (R) 54%, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 31%
AR-Sen: Gilbert Baker (R) 53%, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 31%
AR-Sen: Kim Hendren (R) 51%, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 30%
AR-Sen: Curtis Coleman (R) 52%, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 32%
AR-Sen: John Boozman (R) 56%, Bill Halter (D) 31%
AR-Sen: Jim Holt (R) 49%, Bill Halter (D) 31%
AR-Sen: Gilbert Baker (R) 48%, Bill Halter (D) 33%
AR-Sen: Kim Hendren (R) 45%, Bill Halter (D) 33%
AR-Sen: Curtis Coleman (R) 43%, Bill Halter (D) 37%
GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R) 46%, Roy Barnes (D) 39%
GA-Gov: John Oxendine (R) 45%, Roy Barnes (D) 43%
GA-Gov: Karen Handel (R) 42%, Roy Barnes (D) 41%
GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 42%, Eric Johnson (R) 37%
GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Thurbert Baker (D) 31%
GA-Gov: John Oxendine (R) 44%, Thurbert Baker (D) 34%
GA-Gov: Karen Handel (R) 44%, Thurbert Baker (D) 36%
GA-Gov: Eric Johnson (R) 38%, Thurbert Baker (D) 35%
MI-Gov (D): Andy Dillon 13%, Virg Bernero 12%, Alma Wheeler Smith 9%
MI-Gov (R): Peter Hoekstra 28%, Rick Snyder 14%, Mike Cox 13%, Mike Bouchard 8%
ND-Sen: John Hoeven (R) 69%, Tracy Potter (D) 24%
RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 33%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%, John Robataille (R) 21%
RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee (I) 35%, John Robataille (R) 26%, Patrick Lynch (D) 24%