This is not good news. Gallup has a new poll out of all Americans, and of those who have heard of the Arizona immigration law, 51% support it, while only 39% oppose it.
Now, while not every American has heard of it (but seriously, by now, if you don't know about it, you're SERIOUSLY out of it), 78% of Americans are at least somewhat familiar with it. 21% say they haven't heard about it at all, and frankly, I don't think many of those 21% do things like... oh... vote. But even if you include them, you still have 39% of ALL Americans supporting the law, with only 30% opposing it (and 31% not having heard of it or having no opinion). And there's no reason to think that if and when those 21% learn about it, they won't fall into the same 51%-39% categories as everyone else.
More after the fold.
Looking at it by party, roughly equal percentages of each party (and independents) are familiar and not familiar with the immigration law. And yes, it matters greatly what party you're in. Of those who've heard of the bill, here's how it breaks down.
Not heard of/
Favor Oppose No opinion
Democrats 34% 56% 10%
Independents 50% 39% 11%
Republicans 75% 17% 8%
I expect those kinds of numbers from Republicans, but we're greatly losing the battle among Independents. Even if a lot of them are disaffected Republicans, still, the racial profiling side has a double-digit lead on us.
But what really makes me queasy is of those who've heard and read "a great deal" about this new law, the xenophobe side is still winning by double-digits.
Not heard of/
Favor Oppose No opinion
Read/heard a great deal 53% 43% 4%
Read/heard a fair amount 54% 41% 5%
Not read/heard much 41% 31% 28%
There is still time to stop this and make the racists in the GOP pay for this, but we are starting out with our backs against the wall, and there's no realistic way to spin this that the public is somehow on our side. As people learn more about this, they seem to grow MORE in favor of it. The strategists better come up with some powerful ways to frame this issue, and quickly.