I have tried to gather the latest voter registration totals by state and estimate the turnout this year. I have utilized individual state websites and a summary by
Michael McDonald. I would welcome your feedback if you feel any state estimate is unreasonable. Also if you have more recent registration numbers or reports by state officials on expected turnout that would also be appreciated. Values are in thousands. ND and WI do not require registration before election day. Columns include number of registered voters 2004, percent of registered voters voting in 2000, my estimate of percent of registered voters voting in 2004, and expected number of votes cast in 2004. These estimates rely on personal observation and news reports from Secretaries of State on expected turnout.
I think 123 million voters might be a few more voters than even the Kerry campaign expects - and dramatically more than the Bush campaign can handle. GOTV is the key to victory.
R.V. 2000 2004 2004 AL 2577 66% 68% 1752
AK 461 60% 66% 304
AZ 2643 70% 76% 2009
AR 1686 59% 68% 1146
CA 16000 63% 66% 10560
CO 3065 77% 82% 2513
CT 1900 78% 77% 1463
DE 536 65% 67% 359
DC 369 57% 62% 229
FL 10301 68% 78% 8035
GA 4159 67% 70% 2911
HI 626 58% 67% 419
ID 660 69% 70% 462
IL 7300 66% 70% 5110
IN 4200 55% 62% 2604
IA 2064 71% 81% 1672
KS 1650 66% 69% 1139
KY 2850 60% 67% 1910
LA 2901 65% 71% 2060
ME 990 74% 80% 792
MD 2950 76% 78% 2301
MA 4000 68% 72% 2880
MI 7050 62% 72% 5076
MN 2950 75% 81% 2390
MS 1750 57% 62% 1085
MO 3950 61% 70% 2765
MT 700 59% 62% 434
NE 1100 64% 66% 726
NV 1071 68% 80% 857
NH 870 66% 76% 661
NJ 4800 68% 72% 3456
NM 1092 62% 78% 852
NY 11837 62% 68% 8049
NC 5503 57% 70% 3852
ND * * * 298
OH 7800 62% 80% 6240
OK 2300 55% 65% 1495
OR 2150 79% 84% 1806
PA 8316 63% 78% 6486
RI 670 62% 64% 429
SC 2257 64% 70% 1580
SD 480 67% 72% 346
TN 3300 65% 69% 2277
TX 12500 62% 68% 8090
UT 1170 69% 70% 819
VT 425 69% 72% 306
VA 4179 74% 80% 3343
WA 3300 75% 84% 2772
WV 1169 61% 76% 888
WI * * * 2970
WY 232 97% 90% 209
123187