After a "War and Peace"-sized helping of the Wrap over the weekend, we return this Monday evening to more dietetic portions of polling and political goodness.
Not that there aren't tasty nuggets to be found: the Ras-a-Palooza sees Pennsylvania the same way as Muhlenberg, while we also see new numbers from two races without a real glut of data (MD-Gov and TX-17). Here's a hint--one looks one helluva lot better than the other.
Also, this week marks the return (at least until the end of this 2010 election cycle) of a five-day-a-week diet of the Wrap. Expect to see the Wrap (barring emergencies and bad hair days for yours truly) every Monday through Thursday, plus the weekend edition on Saturdays.
THE U.S. SENATE
CA-Sen: Carlyfornia Dreamin'...Of Being Within Single Digits
If Meg Whitman's campaign has hit the skids (see below), then her fellow megabucks CEO, Carly Fiorina, is in worse shape. After all, "hitting the skids" implies that your campaign was a frontrunner to begin with. Fiorina, in fact, is closer to third place than she is to the lead, according to a new poll from SurveyUSA. The poll has former Congressman Tom Campbell out in front with 35%. Fiorina lags well behind at 24%, with staunch conservative state legislator Chuck DeVore at 15% of the vote.
KY-Sen: Conway Snags Two Major Endorsements
In terms of the endorsements primary, it has been a bountiful couple of days for Kentucky's Democratic Attorney General, Jack Conway. Yesterday, the Lexington Herald-Leader announced its endorsement of Conway over Democratic state Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo. This morning, Conway rolled out an endorsement that might gain him even more yardage: that of former U.S. Senator Wendell Ford. Ford's endorsement of Conway came in the form of an ad, likely to run through next week's primary. In recent polling for that primary, Conway trails slightly, after being behind by far more a few months back.
PA-Sen: Refuting the Electability Argument
For those who are math fans, there is an interesting bit of number-crunching over at Open Left by Pennsylvania native Chris Bowers. Refuting the somewhat conventional wisdom that Arlen Specter is better positioned to win a general election against Republican Patrick Toomey than his Democratic challenger, Joe Sestak, Bowers uses the polling data from Pollster to turn the electability argument on its head. The issue: while Specter runs closer to Toomey on average, he also draws more commitments from voters. The end result: there are a lot more undecided voters in play with Sestak, and Sestak needs to attract fewer of them proportionally to win. Of course, if you put any stock into the Rasmussen polling out of Pennsylvania released today, that electability argument is dead as a doornail, anyway.
THE U.S. HOUSE
TX-17: GOP Internal Poll Shows Edwards In Deep Trouble
Before looking at the numbers in this poll, remember the customary caveat that internal polls need to be taken with something between a dash and an avalanche of salt. That said, the numbers for longtime central Texas Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards are dire, according to a new poll emanating from the GOP. The poll shows Edwards trailing his little-known GOP challenger, Bill Flores, by a 53-41 margin. The poll does acknowledge that Edwards is reasonably popular in-district, which might suggest that Edwards' problems are national, not personal. Edwards is somewhat dismissive of the poll, pointing out (accurately) that the national GOP has thought that the district terrain would doom him on multiple occasions, only to see their dreams of vanquishing Edwards fall by the wayside.
WI-07: Democrats Successfully Lure Top Recruit Into Obey Seat
It did not take Democrats long to secure a commitment from one of their leading recruits to replace the recently retired David Obey. State Senator Julie Lassa announced that she would seek the seat held by Obey since 1969 (which, coincidentally, was before Lassa was even born). Lassa is a veteran of the Wisconsin legislature, having served since 1998 (when she was still in her twenties). Given that this seat hasn't been open since the Nixon administration, it is safe to assume that there will be additional players on the Democratic bench eyeing this seat, although stories are already appearing that state Democrats have a preference for Lassa.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AL-Gov: New GOP Poll Hints At Super-Tight Primary
Missed this one trying to compile the uber-Wrap over the weekend: A lot of attention has been paid to the Democratic primary between Artur Davis and Ron Sparks in Alabama, but if a new poll from Ayers/McHenry is to be believed, the real action might be on the GOP side. The poll, conducted for Tim James, shows James out in front with 26% of the vote, but also shows both "Ten Commandments" Judge Roy Moore and former college chancellor Bradley Byrne within a few points of him. The top three are separated by just six points in the survey. That primary takes place on June 1st.
CA-Gov: From Juggernaut To Nailbiter For Meg Whitman?
It has been building for a while out on the West Coast, but now the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza takes the question national: will Meg Whitman's $59 million investment in her own gubernatorial campaign wind up being all for naught? The rapidly growing consensus is that her campaign is tanking, and new numbers out today from SurveyUSA bolster the argument. The pollster has Whitman up by just two points over state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner (39-37). It was not all that long ago that Whitman had a 3-to-1 lead over Poizner. For what it is worth, Jerry Brown leads the Democratic primary in the poll with nearly two-thirds of the vote.
MD-Gov: O'Malley Leads Ehrlich Rematch, But Could Turnout Be Key?
Despite its status as a high-profile rematch of a fairly close 2006 election, the Maryland Governor's race has not seen a ton of data in this cycle. That changed a bit today, with fresh polling from the state, courtesy of the Washington Post. In those numbers lies a good news/bad news scenario for Democratic incumbent Martin O'Malley. The good news: among registered voters, O'Malley holds a lead over Ehrlich roughly similar to his margin of victory four years ago (49-41). The bad news: among a tighter screen of "certain voters", the match-up is a draw, with both men snagging 47% of the vote. This would seem to confirm that GOTV will be particularly critical this go-round for O'Malley, who seems to do extremely well with that pool of the electorate who may vote in 2010, but are not firmly committed to do so.
MI-Gov: Wheeler Smith Exit Thins Democratic Field
In what will probably be welcome news for Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, longtime Michigan state legislator Alma Wheeler Smith announced her exit from the Michigan gubernatorial race. Bernero and Wheeler Smith were competing to be the progressive alternative to Andy Dillon, the considerably more conservative alternative in the open-seat primary to replace outgoing Governor Jennifer Granholm. Wheeler Smith was polling in third place in the race, and acknowledged a desire not to split the progressive vote in a competitive primary. There is still considerable time for Bernero to consolidate the progressive vote here--the primary is scheduled for early August.
PA-Gov: Dem Primary Tightens As Sestak-Specter Sucks Up Oxygen
The possible historic upset of Senator Arlen Specter is getting a lot of the political attention in the Keystone State, but there might be some legitimate news on the gubernatorial side, according to the latest incarnation of the Muhlenberg tracking poll. While Dan Onorato is still sitting at about 35%, it looks like a legitimate second alternative is now emerging. The well-funded Philly-area state legislator, Anthony Williams, has now moved into a clear 2nd place in the primary, up several points over the last two days to 15%. With a third of the electorate still undecided, this is an awfully fluid situation.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Just about the thinnest edition of the Ras-Fest you ever will see, what with there being no releases on Sunday. Rasmussen did hit up Pennsylvania last week, and their release confirms what Muhlenberg has been telling us all weekend: Joe Sestak is on the rise, and Dan Onorato is still a clear frontrunner on the gubernatorial side.
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 50%, Sen. Arlen Specter (D) 38%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 42%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%
PA-Gov (D): Dan Onorato 34%, Anthony Williams 17%, Jack Wagner 17%, Joe Hoeffel 9%
PA-Sen (D): Joe Sestak 47%, Sen. Arlen Specter 42%