This, arguably, is among the best polling days for Democrats this year. One day doth not make a trend, but the GOP has to be a little surprised, after months of optimistic data, to see what emerged today from places like Pennsylvania, Idaho, Nevada, and Massachusetts.
Alas, the post-Palin era for the GOP looks pretty good in Alaska. All of that, and more, in the mid-week edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
FL-Sen: Crist thumbs nose At GOP twice in one day
Charlie Crist is quite clearly growing comfortable with his role as an Independent Senate candidate. He started off this Wednesday by formally changing his party registration from Republican to "NPA", which stands for "no party affiliation." His campaign then made a fairly surprising move: they announced that they will not be offering refunds to donors angered at his abandonment of the GOP. The money quote: "They donated to the Charlie Crist for U.S. Senate Campaign and it's still the Charlie Crist for U.S. Senate Campaign."
KY-Sen: Rand Paul pulling away in Bluegrass Poll; Dems Tight
The new Bluegrass Poll is out, and Trey Grayson's lifeline appears to be growing thin. The poll has doctor Rand Paul leading Trey Grayson 49-33. Grayson was the establishment pick early on, but Paul has led in polling for the past few months, and seems to now be the betting favorite for next week's primary. Meanwhile, there is no betting favorite on the Democratic side, where Dan Mongiardo and Jack Conway are separated by a single point (38-37).
NV-Sen: Internal poll claims Reid poll position vastly improved
Granted, given the pollster (which Nevada columnist Jon Ralston describes as a Democratic pollster, identified elsewhere as Franklin Maslin Maullin), one has to presume this is some kind of internal poll. That said, new numbers out of Nevada give Harry Reid his best numbers of the year. The poll has Harry Reid up five on ChickenCare maven Sue Lowden (42-37), and even has him dead-even with the other leading GOPer in the field, Danny Tarkanian (37-37). Ralston, for what it worth, ties it to the political death of Bob Bennett, and implies that a purge of moderates from the GOP is pending.
NC-Sen: Pure toss-up in Democratic battle to take on Sen. Burr
The June runoff election to select the Democratic nominee to challenge freshman GOP Senator Richard Burr has deadlocked, according to a new poll by the local boys at PPP. Both are sitting on 36% of the vote. What this means, of course, is that after an entire primary season and a week of the runoff, there are still nearly a third of the Democratic electorate in North Carolina that is still undecided.
PA-Sen: Democratic position for general election improves, says F&M
Much, of course, has been made today of the trio of polls out of Pennsylvania showing the battle between Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak for the Democratic Senate nomination to be an absolute toss-up. But the Franklin and Marshall poll also examined the general election, and there is cause for optimism among Dems. Both Specter and Sestak are now within the margin of error against near-certain GOP nominee Patrick Toomey. Toomey leads Specter by two points (35-33), and he leads Sestak by just a single point (29-28). As is always the case with F&M polling, there is an outsized share of the vote that is undecided (no pressing leaners here, evidently).
THE U.S. HOUSE
ID-01: New poll--GOP primary muddled, general solid for Minnick
This new public poll would, in my opinion, qualify as a big surprise: according to a new survey from Greg Smith and Associates, Democratic freshman Walt Minnick, long seen as one of the most vulnerable incumbents in office, has a double-digit lead in one of the reddest districts in America held by a Democrat. Paired against a generic Republican, Minnick holds a 50-20 lead. Meanwhile, in the GOP primary, undecided is the big winner, with roughly half of the electorate still unsure on their choice. NRCC-touted candidate Vaughn Ward has a 34-16 lead over Raul Labrador.
NY-13: NY Observer doubts Fossella bid is pending
Count Azi Paybarah of the New York Observer as a skeptic of the idea that disgraced former Congressman Vito Fossella will run for his old House seat in 2010. His argument is that Fossella's late entrance would not allow for time for the rehashing of his personal failings to leave the public consciousness. On top of that, the district could easily wind up being substantially altered in redistricting. If Fossella doesn't run, a McMahon internal poll tells us that he is solid position for re-election.
PA-12: Democratic position improves in Murtha special election
Several polls over the past few weeks (including a Daily Kos/R2K poll) showed the Republican, Tim Burns, in excellent position to pick up a seat for the GOP. But there might be a reversal of fortune in our midst, if a new poll by Susquehanna Research is to be believed. The pollster (who actually has done some work for the GOP in the past) has Democrat Mark Critz leading Republican Tim Burns by a six-point margin (44-38). What's more, the new poll shows that Burns is far from a lock to be the party nominee in November--he is locked in a tough battle with 2008 nominee William Russell, who was furious when Burns was granted the nomination for the special election, and has waged a brutal primary battle with Burns.
TN-09: Herenton doubles down on the crazy in House bid
I have followed campaigns for a pretty long time, and this has to qualify as a first: Willie Herenton has backed out of a scheduled debate against his opponent, Congressman Steve Cohen, saying the debate panel was biased against him. In particular, he cited an editor for the Memphis Commercial-Record and a reporter for the television station hosting the debate. A bemused Cohen responded that he "never even fathomed asking who, or trying to dictate who, the panelists would be."
WV-01: National Democrats said to be "cool" towards new Dem nominee
Mike Oliverio might be the nominee of the Democratic Party in a potentially perilous swing district, but he appears not to have a very deep reservoir of goodwill among national Democrats. Last night, Oliverio successfully ended the 28-year long Congressional career of West Virginia Rep. Alan Mollohan. The original statement from the DCCC praised Mollohan, but did not even mention Oliverio by name. A subsequent follow-up did congratulate Oliverio for his victory. National Democrats were cool to Oliverio for his aggressive treatment of Mollohan, who was popular with colleagues. Also, Oliverio had fairly harsh words for Nancy Pelosi, which certainly added to the rancor.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Poizner smells blood, throws more cash at primary bid
In perhaps the clearest sign yet that GOP state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner sees a path of victory, he has thrown another $2.5 million at his challenge to Meg Whitman for the Republican primary nod. That means that the two candidates for Governor on the GOP side have now self-funded to the tune of over $75 million, with Whitman responsible for $59 million in self-funding, and Poizner kicking in another $17.5 mil.
NV-Gov: Dem poll has Rory Reid roaring back to life
The same Democratic poll that Jon Ralston cited in his column about the resurrection of Senator Harry Reid had some pretty tasty numbers for Reid's son, Rory. Rory Reid trails Republican frontrunner Brian Sandoval by just five points (46-41). Sandoval has routinely led Reid by double digits, according to virtually all public polling in the race. Sandoval must first survive the GOP primary next month, and recent polling has suggested that scandal-tarred incumbent GOP Governor Jim Gibbons might well be on the road to political recovery in that primary.
PA-Gov: Corbett v. Onorato still likely, according to multiple polls
While almost all of the attention in the Keystone State has been on the Sestak-Specter showdown, the pollsters that tested that race also looked at the gubernatorial election, with predictable results. Quinnipiac had almost the exact same numbers that Muhlenberg has been showing for two weeks, with Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (38%), ahead of the tightly bunched trio of Jack Wagner (11%), Anthony Williams (10%), and Joe Hoeffel (9%). On the GOP side, state A.G. Tom Corbett still has an enormous lead (57-14) over state legislator Sam Rohrer. Onorato had a similar lead in today's incarnation of the Muhlenberg tracking poll, where he held a 37-15 lead over Anthony Williams. Finally, the Franklin and Marshall poll, which typically has a metric ton of undecided voters, concurs: Onorato leads with 27% of the vote, with Williams and Wagner back at 5%. On the GOP side, the Corbett-Rohrer race is a lot tighter in the F&M poll, with the frontrunner only ahead by a 29-10 margin.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Rasmussen, after a silent Tuesday, awakens on Wednesday with numbers that would have to be described as surprising out of the Bay State. After months being seen as one of the most vulnerable incumbents in America, is there a boomlet in progress for Democratic Governor Deval Patrick? Also, the House of Ras heads north to Alaska, and finds that the citizens there quite clearly consider new Governor Sean Parnell to be an upgrade over the previous occupant of the Governor's Mansion.
AK-Gov: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 58%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 30%
AK-Gov: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 62%, Hollis French (D) 24%
AK-Gov: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 62%, Bob Poe (D) 21%
AK-Gov: Ralph Samuels (R) 43%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 36%
AK-Gov: Ralph Samuels (R) 48%, Hollis French (D) 26%
AK-Gov: Ralph Samuels (R) 47%, Bob Poe (D) 23%
MA-Gov: Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 45%, Charlie Baker (R) 31%, Tim Cahill (I) 14%