Yesterday, I noted in the Abbreviated Pundit round-up this AP-GfK Poll, which showed the "Obama's Katrina" attempt by Republicans to be a failure (Good marks for Obama on spill, more drilling). Today, a follow-up release holds more mixed signals, but a welcome shift on Congressional emphasis.
Americans want Democrats to control Congress after this fall's elections, a shift from April, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll released Saturday. But the margin is thin and there's a flashing yellow light for incumbents of both parties: Only about a third want their own lawmakers re-elected.
The tenuous 45 percent to 40 percent preference for a Democratic Congress reverses the finding a month ago on the same question: 44 percent for Republicans and 41 percent for Democrats. The new readout came as the economy continued showing signs of improvement and the tumultuous battle over the health care law that President Barack Obama finally signed in March faded into the background.
"To the extent that Democrats can focus on job creation rather than health care, they tend to do better," said Jack Pitney, a political scientist at California's Claremont McKenna College.
A bit more:
Compared with the last AP-GfK poll in April, the survey showed Republicans losing some support among married women, a key component of many GOP victories. Democrats picked up ground among young and rural voters.
"I'm a new Democrat," said Harley Smithson, 51, of Baltimore, who said he had recently switched from the GOP. "I want to be with a party that's for something instead of against everything."
Even so, the poll underscores that the political environment remains ominous for Democrats.
There are things to remember about November: this is a congressional district by district election, heavily influenced by the political environment. A less toxic environment is good for incumbents, but is not a substitute for the individual race analyses needed in a volatile year.
Nonetheless, Obama's job approval/disapproval is at a steady 49/50 (currently 48.8/45.7 on pollster.com and was 49/50 last month), Congressional Dem job approvals are 37/61 (41/58 in April) and Rs are 31/65 (38/60 in April.)
The turnaround story is here (click for bigger pic):
These are better numbers than in April, but we need to see steady improvement if we want to see the November election numbers at their best. Concentrating on jobs, financial reform and favoring Main Street over Wall Street banksters is the best way to get there.
And of course, our people have to turn out. That's another story for another day.
Topline data is here, .pdf, and includes more data on the Tea Party (68% are not self described supporters, up from 60% last month; the more you know about them...), party ID (45-39 D-R), who is better at... numbers on the economy (D), illegal immigration (R), health care (D), protecting the country (R), etc...
Interview dates (General Population): May 7 – 11, 2010
Interviews: 1,002 adults (general population)
Margin of error: +/- 4.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level
Additional discussion of the AP poll is going on in karpaty lviv's recommended diary.