Election results: Arkansas, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and PA-12.
Latest numbers:
Kentucky: 89.0 percent in, Conway 44.8, Mongiardo 42.8.
Pennsylvania: 27.8 percent in, Specter 50.7, Sestak 49.3.
Arkansas: 1 percent in, Lincoln 47.6, Halter 40.1, Morrison 12.3.
PA-12: 5.5 percent in, Critz (D) 60, Burns (R) 38
Conway's lead in Kentucky is now down to 11,000 votes. Meanwhile, Paul's margin is currently 59.1-35.4. That's crazy shit. Still, Paul has gotten fewer votes than Mongiardo has, and Mongiardo remains in second place.
I'm liking Sestak's chances in PA, given that Philly is already 50 percent in. Sestak should take the lead sometime within the next half hour.
Update: For what it's worth, both Nate Silver and SSP have crunched some numbers, and think Conway will hold on. If he does, no one can fault him for a lack of suspense.
Update II:
Latest numbers:
Kentucky: 91.9 percent in, Conway 44.8, Mongiardo 42.8.
Pennsylvania: 32.5 percent in, Specter 50.2, Sestak 49.8.
Arkansas: 1 percent in, Lincoln 47.5, Halter 40.0, Morrison 12.5.
PA-12: 6.9 percent in, Critz (D) 58, Burns 39
Conway's lead down to 9,000 votes, but Mongiardo is running out of precincts. This is looking more like a hold. But no celebrating yet.
Update III: I'm hearing from the Conway campaign that they think they've got it.
Update IV: The Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman tweets:
Cook Report doesnt call elections, but if we did, I'd have enough data to call #PASEN Dem nod for Joe Sestak
I'm the most unsophisticated vote counter you'll see (SSP and 538 specialize in that sort of shit), but my scan of the PA results show that Sestak should win comfortably.
Latest results, and then I'm taking a 5-minute break to make myself a burrito:
Kentucky: 92.4 percent in, Conway 44.8, Mongiardo 42.8.
Pennsylvania: 35.6 percent in, Specter 50.0, Sestak 50.0.
Arkansas: 1 percent in, Lincoln 47.5, Halter 40.0, Morrison 12.5.
PA-12: 6.9 percent in, Critz (D) 58, Burns 39