Mike Allen:
Newt Gingrich forecasts Obama loss
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gives President Barack Obama only a 20 percent chance of being reelected — and says he might be the one to give Obama the boot.
So, Newt Gingrich says he's seriously considering running for President...and the focus of the story is on his not-so-surprising view that President Obama won't win re-election? Yawn!
But Gingrich did say one interesting thing, actually.
Gingrich said he even sees a chance of Republican control of the Senate. “If they can beat Barbara Boxer [in California], I think that [Mitch] McConnell is going to be the Senate majority leader.”
What's interesting about that isn't that he thinks Republicans might win the Senate. Of course he thinks that.
What's interesting is that he thinks that if Republicans win control of the Senate that Mitch McConnell will be the majority leader.
I wouldn't bet on that. In fact, whether or not Republicans win the Senate, the Senate GOP caucus in 2011 is likely to be more conservative than the 2010 version, and some of the new Senators may swing more towards Jim DeMint's view of the world than Mitch McConnell's.
Moreover, it's abundantly clear that the tea party movement, which is supposedly the strength of the GOP, is much closer to DeMint than McConnell. Newt Gingrich keeps on trying to sound like a teabagger, but he slips up over and over again, and forecasting that Mitch McConnell will be the Senate GOP leader in 2011 is just the latest example.