We spent the last two weeks hearing how yesterday's House special election in PA-12 -- the only district won by Kerry that McCain won -- would be indicative of November's elections. Here was über-wanker Howard Fineman, on Chris Matthews' show:
MATTHEWS: If they beat a local guy in a Democrat meat-and-potatoes district, isn`t that a real bad sign for Nancy Pelosi?
FINEMAN: Well, Chris, I don`t like to make grandiose statements on the show. But if the Republicans take that district...
MATTHEWS: We`re looking at the vote...
(CROSSTALK)
FINEMAN: Now, it is true that that district went -- switched from Democrat to Republican in the presidential race, the only one in the country...
MATTHEWS: It`s different.
FINEMAN: OK, that is different. It is meat and potatoes. Johnstown from the time of the Johnstown flood cares about government help. They loved John Murtha for bringing in the money.
MATTHEWS: You`re so good!
FINEMAN: Pennsylvania is a bacon state. You have to bring home the bacon.
MATTHEWS: You`re so good, Howard!
(CROSSTALK)
FINEMAN: If you vote against the New Deal in that district...
MATTHEWS: Right.
FINEMAN: ... it`s lights out for the Democrats this year.
MATTHEWS: OK, I`m with you. Gregory...
FINEMAN: Lights out!
MATTHEWS: David, do they see it that way in the White House? If they lose the 13th, Jack Murtha`s district, it`s like losing, to me, Massachusetts with Scott Brown [...]
FINEMAN: If the Dems lose that district, they`re going to lose the House.
Had the Republicans taken the seat, the media would've undoubtedly double downed on their narrative of imminent Democratic doom. (Say that last sentence ten times in a row, really fast.) Instead, we get this from the AP:
But any attempt to read into the results a probable trend for the fall campaign was hazardous — particularly given Critz's victory over Republican Tim Burns to succeed Democrat Murtha in Congress.
Ah yes. We can't read anything into those results. The Democrat won after all!
Fortunately, the rest of the political media isn't so myopic. NBC's First Read:
In the only contest pitting a Democrat against a Republican, Mark Critz (D) defeated Tim Burns (R) in the special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Jack Murtha (D) in Pennsylvania. As we’ve pointed out, this isn’t a good sign for the GOP in its quest to take back the House in November. Why? Because this was a race that Republicans -- in this kind of political environment -- should have been able to win. Yes, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district. And, yes, the Dem turnout in the competitive Sestak-vs.-Specter primary helped Critz (though the statewide Dem turnout wasn't overly impressive). But this was the only congressional district in the country that John Kerry won in ’04 but Obama lost in ’08, meaning that it was ripe for the picking. Remember, back in 1994, Republicans were the ones winning House special elections. But can this be ’94 all over again if the Democrats are the ones winning these things -- four straight this cycle (PA-12, NY-23, CA-10, NY-20) and seven since 2008 (IL-14, MS-1, LA-6).
Politico:
For Democrats who've struggled to argue that the dynamics of 2010 are more complicated than an anti-Democratic revolt, that the right combination of message and muscle can still win -- this is the one they've been waiting for. The party and its allies poured energy into Critz's win, making 123,977 volunteer phone calls, knocking on 111,958 doors, deploying Bill Clinton and spending millions on ads, all in a district where President Obama's approval rating is in the 30 percent range. In an e-mail to Score, the DCCC's Jennifer Crider said there's more where that came from: "Critz won PA-12 with a message of creating jobs and stopping the outsourcing of American jobs. Republican Tim Burns lost by nationalizing his message and focusing almost exclusively on national leaders, rather than on the issues important to district. Democrats will continue to make the 2010 elections about this choice between Democrats being for the middle class and Republicans being for Wall Street special interests."