As the summer comes and the temperature rises in Afghanistan and Pakistan, especially in this not-so-imaginary place called "Pashtunistan", it is important that citizens remain informed. Below is a compilation of reports from the region pertaining to the American efforts against the Taliban and other militant groups.
In the Maldives, peace talks are
continuing between representatives of Afghanistan and "the Taliban", although it's not clear if it was Mullah Omar who dispatched any of these men. Suggestions are that these peace talks are really more about continuing efforts to splinter the insurgency by establishing peace with Hizb-i-Islami Gulbuddin, the insurgent group led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Talks between the government and HIG have been going on for months now.
However, across the border in Pakistan the situation remains far different. While I have constantly maintained a confidence that Pakistan would eventually launch some kind of operation in North Waziristan, the tribal agency that has become a safe haven for militants of all stripes, it is now safe to assume that an operation is inevitable. The question is no longer about "if" but "when". As I have also maintained, such an operation is only going to happen when Pakistan consolidates its position in the rest of the tribal agencies, especially in "Central FATA"(Khyber, Kurram, Orakzai agencies). They are still engaged in combat against militants in the Orakzai tribal agency, and after that they are likely to be pulled deeper into Khyber and Kurram.
Chances for peace between the Pakistani Taliban and the Pakistani state are not going well. While no one is positive about the identity of the "Asian Tigers" involved in the most important story in North Waziristan, the kidnapping of powerful friends of Mullah Omar(including his handler and mentor "Col. Imam"), people can take their guesses. In addition to this, a peace broker has been assassinated nearby South Waziristan not so far from the Mehsud tribal regions where the Pakistani army dislodged the Pakistani Taliban and other militants during the fall of last year.
If Pakistan moves into North Waziristan I wouldn't expect it to be earlier than August. Here's why;
Strain: The northern-parts of the tribal areas(Bajaur and Mohmand) have not been entirely cleared of militants, and indeed, Pakistan is mindful of just how hard they fought to beat the Taliban back from Swat and the surrounding area. In addition, and as previously discussed, they are engaged in fighting through the central-parts of the tribal areas.
Prudence: Over the past year I haven't really questioned Pakistan's pace in taking on the militants that were spreading past the tribal areas into North-West Frontier Province. They are incrementalists. Considering the terrain and environment that they are engaging the militants one cannot blame them. Past attempts to smash the Taliban have failed. This time they have signaled a desire to take them on one village and one hill at a time. In addition, the Pakistani army will want to work out an understanding with Mullah Nazir in Wana, South Waziristan to keep him as neutral as possible in any fight between the Pakistani army and the militants in North Waziriistan. Furthermore, you can bet that the Pakistani army is paying close attention to this affair regarding the Asian Tigers and former ISI officers- some see a split between the Afghan-focused militants based in and around Miramshah and the other militants closer to the Mir Ali area in the east of North Waziristan. Indeed, Khalid Khawaja, a formerly-ISI confidant of the militants, had his bullet-ridden body dumped on the road between Miramshah and Mir Ali.
IDPs. Pakistan by far has the highest number of internally displaced people, outpacing 2nd place Congo by about three fold according to the UN. An offensive into North Waziristan would add a huge burden to this tragedy and further strain the Pakistani state. This is doubly important when you consider the necessity for Pakistan to provide aid and relief to these people as best as possible for the sake of winning them over.
U.S.: By August, the "troop surge" across the border(which the militants and residents of "Pashtunistan" don't recognize) in Afghanistan will be just about complete. The "hammer and anvil" strategy is what many consider ideal for dealing with this region and its major militant problem.
If we can measure the tension in North Waziristan by observing their actions towards alleged spies, then things are truly worsening. While bullets or decapitation are the normal form of execution in the region, militants tried something new; they strapped explosives to two alleged spies, paraded them around in front of residents, and then blew them up.
While the situation in Afghanistan is not ideal, I still give President Obama and his administration major credit in the overall AfPak area. Unlike President Bush, President Obama seems to actually want to destroy al Qaeda Central's safe haven. On Bush's last day the survival of the Pakistani state was in doubt. Not so anymore. For now.